我国公共投资对城镇化的影响分析
发布时间：2019-07-02 12:56
【摘要】：从1998年十五届三中全会到2012年第十八次全国代表大会召开,历次党和国家重要会议均提及城镇化,并对城镇化做出重要指示,城镇化已经成为国家全局性发展战略。至此,中国城镇化成为社会各界人士,乃至全球各国关注的焦点。2014年9月,新型城镇化试点工作座谈会在北京召开,国务院总理李克强在会上强调,当前我国经济发展下行压力较大,要维持经济平稳增长,必须充分发挥城镇化这一巨大的需求因素,扩大内需,拉动投资。并进一步强调,城镇化作为综合载体,对于城乡结构的破解能够起到行之有效的促进作用。在城镇化快速发展阶段,纵观政府在其中发挥的作用,尤其政府公共投资的影响,其结构、规模及效率对城镇化的影响成为学术界研究的重点,分析城镇化进程中公共投资问题将具有重要的现实意义。本文从理论上,分析城镇化进程中,公共投资现状、存在的问题及对城镇化的影响因素。从结构、效率及区域分布等方面分析当前公共投资的现状,然后指出,公共投资主要存在以下五方面的问题:定位不明确、决策缺乏科学性、管理模式单一、资金来源单一和效率不足等。并指出,影响城镇化的公共投资因素主要有:财政预算及配置比例、经济发展目标、区域协调发展、农村经济发展等。本文实证分析了分行业公共投资对城镇化的影响及公共投资与城镇化之间的动态协整关系。通过建立向量自回归模型及协整方程得出,公共投资对城镇化的长期效益优于短期效益,并且非生产性公共投资对城镇化的促进作用优于生产性公共投资对城镇化的促进作用。本文提出了促进城镇化健康发展,优化公共投资的政策建议。一是保持适度的公共投资规模,二是合理调配公共投资结构,三是充分发挥公共投资效率,四是拓宽公共投资融资渠道,五是科学选择城镇化发展模式。
[Abstract]:From the third Plenary session of the 15th CPC Central Committee in 1998 to the 18th National Congress in 2012, urbanization was mentioned in all important meetings of the Party and the state, and important instructions were given to urbanization. Urbanization has become the overall development strategy of the country. At this point, urbanization in China has become the focus of attention of people from all walks of life, and even all over the world. In September 2014, the forum on pilot work on new urbanization was held in Beijing. Premier Li Keqiang stressed at the meeting that at present, China's economic development is under great downward pressure. In order to maintain steady economic growth, we must give full play to the huge demand factor of urbanization, expand domestic demand, and stimulate investment. It is further emphasized that urbanization, as a comprehensive carrier, can play an effective role in promoting the cracking of urban and rural structures. In the stage of rapid development of urbanization, throughout the role played by the government in it, especially the impact of government public investment, its structure, scale and efficiency on urbanization has become the focus of academic research. It will be of great practical significance to analyze the problem of public investment in the process of urbanization. In theory, this paper analyzes the present situation of public investment, the existing problems and the influencing factors on urbanization in the process of urbanization. This paper analyzes the present situation of public investment from the aspects of structure, efficiency and regional distribution, and then points out that there are five main problems in public investment: unclear positioning, lack of scientific decision-making, single management mode, single source of funds and insufficient efficiency, and so on. It is pointed out that the main factors affecting urbanization are financial budget and allocation ratio, economic development goal, regional coordinated development, rural economic development and so on. This paper empirically analyzes the influence of public investment on urbanization and the dynamic co-integration relationship between public investment and urbanization. Through the establishment of vector autoregression model and co-integration equation, it is concluded that the long-term benefit of public investment to urbanization is better than that of short-term benefit, and the promoting effect of unproductive public investment on urbanization is better than that of productive public investment on urbanization. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy development of urbanization and optimize public investment. One is to maintain a moderate scale of public investment, the other is to allocate the structure of public investment reasonably, the third is to give full play to the efficiency of public investment, the fourth is to broaden the financing channels of public investment, and the fifth is to scientifically choose the development mode of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283
本文编号：2508946
[Abstract]:From the third Plenary session of the 15th CPC Central Committee in 1998 to the 18th National Congress in 2012, urbanization was mentioned in all important meetings of the Party and the state, and important instructions were given to urbanization. Urbanization has become the overall development strategy of the country. At this point, urbanization in China has become the focus of attention of people from all walks of life, and even all over the world. In September 2014, the forum on pilot work on new urbanization was held in Beijing. Premier Li Keqiang stressed at the meeting that at present, China's economic development is under great downward pressure. In order to maintain steady economic growth, we must give full play to the huge demand factor of urbanization, expand domestic demand, and stimulate investment. It is further emphasized that urbanization, as a comprehensive carrier, can play an effective role in promoting the cracking of urban and rural structures. In the stage of rapid development of urbanization, throughout the role played by the government in it, especially the impact of government public investment, its structure, scale and efficiency on urbanization has become the focus of academic research. It will be of great practical significance to analyze the problem of public investment in the process of urbanization. In theory, this paper analyzes the present situation of public investment, the existing problems and the influencing factors on urbanization in the process of urbanization. This paper analyzes the present situation of public investment from the aspects of structure, efficiency and regional distribution, and then points out that there are five main problems in public investment: unclear positioning, lack of scientific decision-making, single management mode, single source of funds and insufficient efficiency, and so on. It is pointed out that the main factors affecting urbanization are financial budget and allocation ratio, economic development goal, regional coordinated development, rural economic development and so on. This paper empirically analyzes the influence of public investment on urbanization and the dynamic co-integration relationship between public investment and urbanization. Through the establishment of vector autoregression model and co-integration equation, it is concluded that the long-term benefit of public investment to urbanization is better than that of short-term benefit, and the promoting effect of unproductive public investment on urbanization is better than that of productive public investment on urbanization. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy development of urbanization and optimize public investment. One is to maintain a moderate scale of public investment, the other is to allocate the structure of public investment reasonably, the third is to give full play to the efficiency of public investment, the fourth is to broaden the financing channels of public investment, and the fifth is to scientifically choose the development mode of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283
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