基于生存分析的二手房议价持时的实验研究
发布时间：2019-07-09 12:49
【摘要】：生存分析(survival analysis)适用于事件持续时间及其影响因素的研究.本文以二手房议价持时为研究对象,采用实验经济学方法设计了二手房交易实验,收集二手房交易的微观数据,使用生存分析方法建立Weibull模型和Cox模型进行实证分析,研究了二手房议价持时的影响因素,得出研究结论并提出了降低二手房议价持时的合理建议.研究表明:二手房议价持时与卖方经验、中介经验、价格偏离度、卖方积极度和时间压力成反比,与买方经验成正比,与买方积极度和成交价格无显著关系.本文的创新点在于使用实验经济学方法收集数据,提高了数据的准确度和针对性,同时引入生存分析方法,为二手房议价持时研究提供了新方法与研究视角.
文内图片：
图片说明：Weibull分布的风险函数}a=1)
[Abstract]:Survival analysis (survival analysis) is suitable for the study of event duration and its influencing factors. This paper takes the bargaining time of second-hand housing as the research object, designs the experiment of second-hand housing transaction by means of experimental economics, collects the microscopic data of second-hand housing transaction, establishes Weibull model and Cox model for empirical analysis by using survival analysis method, studies the influencing factors of second-hand housing bargaining time, draws the research conclusion and puts forward some reasonable suggestions for reducing the bargaining time of second-hand housing. The results show that the bargaining time of second-hand house is inversely proportional to seller's experience, intermediary experience, price deviation degree, seller's product and time pressure, and directly proportional to buyer's experience, but has no significant relationship with buyer's experience and transaction price. The innovation of this paper is that the experimental economics method is used to collect the data, which improves the accuracy and pertinence of the data. At the same time, the survival analysis method is introduced, which provides a new method and research perspective for the study of second-hand housing bargaining time.
【作者单位】： 清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心;清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心;清华大学五道口金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71373143)~~
【分类号】：F299.23
文内图片：
图片说明：Weibull分布的风险函数}a=1)
[Abstract]:Survival analysis (survival analysis) is suitable for the study of event duration and its influencing factors. This paper takes the bargaining time of second-hand housing as the research object, designs the experiment of second-hand housing transaction by means of experimental economics, collects the microscopic data of second-hand housing transaction, establishes Weibull model and Cox model for empirical analysis by using survival analysis method, studies the influencing factors of second-hand housing bargaining time, draws the research conclusion and puts forward some reasonable suggestions for reducing the bargaining time of second-hand housing. The results show that the bargaining time of second-hand house is inversely proportional to seller's experience, intermediary experience, price deviation degree, seller's product and time pressure, and directly proportional to buyer's experience, but has no significant relationship with buyer's experience and transaction price. The innovation of this paper is that the experimental economics method is used to collect the data, which improves the accuracy and pertinence of the data. At the same time, the survival analysis method is introduced, which provides a new method and research perspective for the study of second-hand housing bargaining time.
【作者单位】： 清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心;清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心;清华大学五道口金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71373143)~~
【分类号】：F299.23
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