坦桑尼亚住房项目的PPP模式建模研究

发布时间：2021-11-24 18:04

　　住房产业是现代社会经济发展中非常重要的行业之一。有人用“生活就是房子”来强调住房产业对促进社会经济发展中的作用,因为没有运作良好的住房产业的社会就像是一个没有生命的社会。由于坦桑尼亚政府部门在上个世纪七十年代在增加正规住房供应时的失败,私营部门已经获得许可可以在设计、融资、建设、运营和维修房屋的过程中起主导作用。不过,此举不但没有促进住房质量的提高,反而导致低质量、不可靠、高价格的房屋在计划外的住区比比皆是。另一方面,美国、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚、中国等国家在基础设施部门特别是交通部门成功运用PPP模式,取得了不错的成绩。这一事实促使本研究者专门致力于调查PPP在坦桑尼亚住房行业中应用的绩效因素。研究发现,尽管在坦桑尼亚PPP项目的建设成本相对较高,但是住房部门和建设部门的专业人员却对PPP有着非常高的热情。他们对PPP都持有乐观的态度,认为PPP可以解决在当前公私有房屋交付方式下房屋业主在融资、设计、建筑、运营以及维修中所面临的各种问题。然而,坦桑尼亚目前的政策以及经济指标并没有为PPP的蓬勃发展提供一个非常合适的环境。货币指标为高效的私人股份在SPV资本结构中的占有率提供了有限的范... 

【文章来源】：大连海事大学辽宁省 211工程院校

【文章页数】：175 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
Chapter 1:Introduction
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Past Government Efforts
    1.3 Overview of the Past Government Efforts
    1.4 Statement of the Research Problem
    1.5 Research Objectives
    1.6 Research Questions
    1.7 Significance of the study
    1.8 Research Methodology
        1.8.1 Introduction
        1.8.2 Research design
        1.8.3 Literature Review
        1.8.4 Case studies,Questionnaires and Interviews
        1.8.5 Sample and Sampling Technique
        1.8.8 Data Analysis Techniques
    1.9 Organization of the study
Chapter 2:Literature Review
    2.1 The Housing Concept
    2.2 The Project Concept
    2.3 Project Delivery Methods(PDMs)
    2.4 Selecting Appropriate Projects Delivery Method
    2.5 Main Issues in PDM Selection
        2.5.1 Project Level Issues
        2.5.2 Agency Level Issues
        2.5.3 Public Policy/Regulatory Issues
        2.5.4 Life-cycle Issues
        2.5.5 Other Issues
    2.6 Project Goals and Success Factors from Owner's Perspective
    2.7 Legal Restrictions
    2.8 Summary and Conclusion
    2.9 Public-Private Partnerships(PPPs)
        2.9.1 Overview
        2.9.2 Meaning and Application
        2.9.3 Historical Background of PPP
        2.9.4 Advantages of PPPs- Owners' Perspective
        2.9.5 Rationale for Privatization
        2.9.6 Types of PPPs
        2.9.7 Generic Structure for PPPs
        2.9.8 Categories of Privately Financed PPP Projects
        2.9.9 PPP Models
        2.9.10 PPP Strategies
        2.9.11 PPP Project Risks
        2.9.12 Risk Allocation
        2.9.13 Summary and Conclusion
Chapter 3:Tanzanian Housing Issues in Perspective
    3.1 Overview
    3.2 Actors in Shelter Delivery
        3.2.1 The Public Sector
        3.2.2 The Private Sector
    3.3 Overview of the Market Conditions
        3.3.1 Land market
        3.3.2 The Real Estate Market
    3.4 Summary and Conclusion
Chapter 4:Data Presentation and Analysis
    4.1 Introduetion
    4.2 Methodology
    4.3 Selection of the Respondents
    4.4 The Goodness of Fit Test
    4.5 Descriptive analysis
    4.6 Regression Model
        4.6.1 Introduction
        4.6.2 Dependent and Independent Variables
        4.6.3 Regression Analysis for Private Housing
        4.6.4 Regression Analysis for Public Housing
        4.6.5 Conclusion
Chapter 5:AHP-LP Approach and Modeling
    5.1 The Basics of AHP Approach
    5.2 Consistent Versus Inconsistent Judgments
    5.3 Weighted Matrix versus AHP
    5.4 Subjective Method for Assigning Weights
        5.4.1 Delphi Method
        5.4.2 Rank Order Centroid(ROC)
        5.4.3 Ratio Method
        5.4.4 Pair-Wise Comparison
    5.5 Evaluating Performance Factors for Housing Projects Using AHP Approach
        5.5.1 Overall Housing Project Delivery and Management Goals (Level 1)
        5.5.2 Analytical Processing of Level 2 Factors
        5.5.3 Analytical Processing of Level 3 Factors
        5.5.4 Analytical Processing of Level 4 Factors
        5.5.5 Synthesis
        5.5.6 Summary
    5.6 Linear Programming Approach
        5.6.1 The AHP-LP Model for Housing Projects Planning
        5.6.2 The Linear Programming (LP) Model Formulation
        5.6.3 Linear Programming of the Housing Projects
        5.6.4 Solution and Implications
    5.7 Summary and Conclusion of AHP-LP Model
Chapter 6:Capital Structure Optimization Model
    6.1 Introduction
    6.2 Milestones for the Model
    6.3 Capital Structure for Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV)
        6.3.1 Demand Function of SPV
        6.3.2 Supply Function of the SPV
        6.3.3 Discount Rates
    6.4 Determination of the Efficient Interval for SPV financing
    6.5 Sensitivity Analysis-Monetary Discount Rates
    6.6 Conclusions
Chapter 7:Testing the Yantai model in the City of Dar es Salaam
    7.1 Introduction to the city of Yantai
    7.2 Overview of Tongshen Redevelopment Project
    7.3 Yantai's Success as part of China's Housing Miracles
    7.4 The Factors for China's Success in the Housing Sector
    7.5 Introduction to the City of Dar Es Salaam
    7.6 Housing Conditions in Dar es Salaam
    7.7 Application of Yantai Model in Dar es Salaam Projects
    7.8 Lessons to the City of Dar es Salaam
        7.8.1 Participation of All Stakeholders is Essential
        7.8.2 The Government Should Play Its Roles Properly
        7.8.3 PPPs Can Do Miracles in the City
    7.9 Conclusion
Chapter 8:Conclusions and Recommendations
    8.1 Introduction
    8.2 General Conclusion
    8.3 Implications for Policy and Planning
    8.4 The Need for Adjustments
    8.5 Contributions of the Research
        8.5.1 Development of the Housing Delivery and Management Model
        8.5.2 Stirring the Debate on PPP Applications in the Housing Sector
    8.6 Challenges and Limitations of the Study
    8.7 Recommendations for Future Research
Reference
Appendices
Papers Published By The Author
Acknowledgement
中文摘要


【参考文献】：
期刊论文
[1]MAKING AND VALIDATING COMPLEX DECISIONS WITH THE AHP/ANP[J]. Thomas L. SAATY.  Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2005(01)
[2]DECISION MAKING - THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY AND NETWORK PROCESSES （AHP/ANP）[J]. Thomas L.SAATY.  Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004(01)



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