我国城镇居民消费结构实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-04 05:28

本文关键词：我国城镇居民消费结构实证分析　出处：《辽宁师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济改革的不断深入，我国的经济已经得到了迅速发展，居民的生活水平有了很大程度的提高，消费结构也在不断升级。居民消费结构的变化直接影响着社会经济活动的变化，只有了解居民消费结构变化的趋势和规律，掌握消费需求的热点和发展方向，才能为消费者提供良好的政策环境，引导消费者合理扩大消费，才能促进产业结构调整与消费结构优化升级相协调，才能推动国民经济平稳、健康发展。在实际生活中，我们经常通过分析数据去挖掘隐藏在数据下的潜在信息，分析与所研究对象相关联的信息，预测和制定事物的发展方向。首先运用了因子分析法、聚类分析法两种多元统计分析方法对我国居民消费数据进行实证分析，找到影响居民消费的主要和次要因子，对数据进行由小到大的分类，进而探讨各地区的消费能力。因此本文主要研究了居民消费支出与我国的财政支出和居民收入之间的内在关系，居民消费支出作为一种内部力量已经越来越受到人们的重视并上升为国计民生的重要课题。本文的框架如下：第一章绪论。介绍了论文背景及意义，并阐述了论文的具体结构。第二章阐述了因子分析法的基本思想以及因子分析的步骤。第三章主要介绍了聚类分析的步骤以及基本思想，阐述了系统聚类法和K均值聚类法两种聚类方法。第四章主要介绍了协整分析及多元线性回归分析，阐述了协整理论和协整检验以及回归分析的基本思想。第五章实证分析。对我国城镇居民消费支出结构进行分析，，分析我国经济发展的不平衡性，同时进一步探讨居民消费与财政支出和居民收入之间的纵向关系，并对数据进行模拟与预测。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of our country ' s economic reform , our country ' s economy has been rapidly developed , the living standard of the residents has been improved to a great extent , and the consumption structure is constantly upgrading . The change of the consumer structure directly affects the change of the social and economic activities . Only by understanding the trends and laws of the change of the consumption structure of the residents , can the consumer provide a good policy environment and guide the consumers to expand the consumption reasonably , so as to promote the smooth and healthy development of the national economy . In the actual life , we often use the analysis data to dig hidden the potential information hidden under the data , analyze the information associated with the object to be studied , forecast and formulate the direction of the development of things . First , we use factor analysis method and cluster analysis method to analyze the consumer data of our country , find out the main and minor factors that affect the consumption of residents , classify the data from small to large , and then explore the consumption ability of each region . The framework of this article is as follows : The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the paper , and expounds the concrete structure of the paper . The second chapter expounds the basic idea of factor analysis and the step of factor analysis . In chapter 3 , the steps of cluster analysis and basic idea are introduced , and two clustering methods of system clustering and K - means clustering are described . The fourth chapter mainly introduces co - integration analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis , and expounds the basic idea of co - integration theory and co - integration test and regression analysis . The fifth chapter analyzes the structure of consumption expenditure of urban residents in China , analyzes the imbalance of our country ' s economic development , and further discusses the longitudinal relationship between the residents ' consumption and the financial expenditure and the resident income , and simulates and forecasts the data .

【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F126.1

【参考文献】