城镇化进程中的粮食安全问题研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 19:14

本文关键词：城镇化进程中的粮食安全问题研究　出处：《河南工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，虽然我国粮食产量实现连续“十年增”，但是粮食进口量逐年大幅增加，粮食自给率持续下滑，安全形势不容乐观。当前，我国正处于城镇化加速发展时期，城镇化水平的提高会对粮食生产和消费需求产生重要影响，导致我国粮食安全形势出现新的变化。本文以区域发展理论和城镇化发展理论，以及粮食安全问题理论为基础，阐述了我国城镇化的发展现状和目标，以及我国粮食生产、消费、进口等关系粮食安全的因素，分析了城镇化带来的粮食供需问题，城镇化发展中的耕地变化对粮食安全的影响等。然后，结合之前的分析，做了中长期城镇化发展趋势和粮食安全发展趋势预测，重点研究了城镇化与粮食安全的关系，通过逻辑关系分析找出了影响二者发展的核心因素耕地和人口，建立了逻辑关系表达式，并进一步分析了城镇化与耕地、人口的数量关系，建立了多元回归分析模型，对城镇化与粮食安全的关系做了较为科学、全面的表述。研究结果表明，，一是中长期我国城镇化率呈现持续上升趋势，我国粮食产量有较大增产潜力，年均增长率可能维持在1.1%左右，同时粮食需求也将持续增长，但是粮食供需整体处于相对宽松格局。二是城镇化发展对粮食总产量形成威胁，但是如果能够控制好耕地面积和人口转移数量变化，则二者可以实现协调发展。三是在研究耕地变化与粮食生产的关系中发现，必须坚守耕地红线和粮食生产优先，才能确保粮食产量持续增长，同时应该注重耕地质量的提升。最后，根据2013年中央经济工作会议将粮食安全列入国家首要战略任务的要求和国家新型城镇化规划（2014-2020年）的指示，提出新时期确保我国粮食安全的的具体对策，其一应该推进新型城镇化持续和健康发展，理顺城镇化中土地市场和人口转移的次序，为确保粮食安全奠定基础；其二需要切实保护耕地资源，提升耕地质量水平，为粮食持续增产提供资源保证；其三是适当利用国际市场调剂余缺，满足国内市场供需趋于平衡；其四是重视科学技术在提升粮食产量中的作用，完善科技支农惠农服务体系；其五是科学配置粮食加工业的资本结构；其六是合理调整粮食生产扶持政策，提高农民的生产积极性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, although China's grain production has been "increased for ten consecutive years", the amount of grain imports has increased significantly year by year, the self-sufficiency rate of grain has continued to decline, and the security situation is not optimistic. China is in an accelerating period of urbanization. The improvement of urbanization level will have an important impact on the food production and consumption demand, leading to new changes in the situation of food security in China. Based on regional development theory, urbanization development theory and food security theory, this paper expounds the present situation and goal of urbanization in China, as well as grain production and consumption in China. Import and other factors related to food security, analyzed the problem of grain supply and demand brought by urbanization, the change of cultivated land in the development of urbanization, and so on. Then, combined with the previous analysis. The long-term trend of urbanization and food security development trend forecast, focus on the relationship between urbanization and food security, through the logical relationship analysis to find out the core factors affecting the development of arable land and population. The expression of logical relation is established, and the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land and population is further analyzed. The multivariate regression model is established, and the relationship between urbanization and food security is made more scientific. The research results show that, first, the urbanization rate in the medium and long term in China shows a continuous upward trend, and the grain yield in China has a great potential to increase production, and the average annual growth rate may be maintained at about 1.1%. At the same time, grain demand will continue to grow, but the overall grain supply and demand is in a relatively loose pattern. Second, urbanization is a threat to total grain output. But if we can control the change of cultivated land area and the quantity of population transfer, they can achieve coordinated development. Third, we find out in the study of the relationship between cultivated land change and grain production. We must stick to the red line of cultivated land and give priority to grain production in order to ensure a sustained increase in grain production and at the same time we should pay attention to the improvement of cultivated land quality. Finally, in accordance with the requirements of the 2013 Central Economic work Conference to place food security in the country's top strategic task and the directive of the National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020). The concrete countermeasures to ensure the food security in China in the new period are put forward. Firstly, the sustainable and healthy development of new urbanization should be promoted, and the order of land market and population transfer in urbanization should be straightened out so as to lay a foundation for ensuring food security. Secondly, it is necessary to protect cultivated land resources, improve the quality of cultivated land, and provide resources guarantee for the sustainable increase of grain production. The third is to make proper use of the international market to adjust the balance between supply and demand in the domestic market; The fourth is to attach importance to the role of science and technology in improving grain production, and to improve the service system of supporting agriculture and benefiting agriculture by science and technology; Fifthly, the capital structure of grain processing industry should be allocated scientifically; Its sixth is reasonable adjustment grain production supports the policy, enhances the farmer's production enthusiasm.
【学位授予单位】：河南工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F326.11

【参考文献】