成本冲击、通货膨胀与货币政策——基于总供给-总需求框架的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-11 04:25

本文关键词：成本冲击、通货膨胀与货币政策——基于总供给-总需求框架的实证分析　出处：《金融评论》2015年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文系统地回顾了有关中国通货膨胀的文献,我们发现,现有的研究通常偏重于数据挖掘,而忽视了普适性宏观经济理论的约束,因而所得出的结论其经济学含义值得商榷。尽管总供给-总需求框架是十分简洁的宏观分析框架,但是很少有人用它的具体方程来推导通货膨胀的决定式,并将所得来的决定式用之进行中国的实证分析,使理论研究与实证分析相互印证。本文创新性地在总供给-总需求框架下,首先对封闭经济下的通货膨胀成因做了较为深入分析,接着将模型推广到开放经济中以获得计量上可估的线性方程,并利用中国的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,中国通胀的形成是由供给面和需求面两方面因素共同决定的,这也在数量上验证了总供给-总需求框架在中国的适用性。其中,产出缺口增大、劳动力增速放缓、货币增速变大、人民币实际有效汇率同比增速减缓、大宗商品价格增速走高都显著性地导致通胀率的抬升,且它们对于通货膨胀的影响的显现具有一定的时滞性。鉴于此,我们建议,当经济体遭遇供给冲击(刘易斯拐点、大宗商品价格高企等)时,货币政策尤其需要审慎,以避免因刺激性宏观政策形成成本推动与需求拉动相互强化所导致的螺旋式价格上涨。
[Abstract]:This paper systematically reviews China inflation literature, we found that the existing research usually focuses on data mining, while ignoring the universality of the macroeconomic theory of constraints, so the conclusion of the meaning of economics is debatable. Although the AS-AD framework is the macro analysis framework is very simple, but very few a decision to use the specific type of inflation is its equation, and will determine the type derived from the empirical analysis Chinese used, the theoretical research and empirical analysis to confirm each other. This paper innovatively in AS-AD framework, the first in-depth analysis of the causes of inflation in the closed economy under the do then, we extend the model to the open economy in order to obtain the linear equation can estimate the measurement, and makes an empirical analysis of the China data. The results show that Chinese formed by inflation Two aspects of supply and demand factors, it is also in the number of verified AS-AD framework in Chinese applicability. Among them, the output gap increases, labor slowdown, monetary growth becomes larger, the real effective exchange rate of RMB year-on-year growth slowed, commodity price growth rate is significantly higher to cause the inflation rate rise, and their effect on inflation. There are certain time. In view of this, we suggest that when the economy suffered a supply shock (Lewis inflection point, high commodity prices etc.), especially the monetary policy to be cautious in order to avoid the formation of macro policies to stimulate the cost push and demand pull the mutually reinforcing spiral caused by the price rise.

【作者单位】：中国人民银行货币政策二司;中国外汇交易中心;
【分类号】：F822.0;F822.5;F224
【正文快照】： 1995年颁布的《中国人民银行法》将“保持货币币值的稳定,并以此促进经济增长”作为我国货币政策实施的最终目标。近些年来,稳定物价及控制通胀也一直是我国宏观经济调控的重要目标。纵观1995年以来至此次国际金融危机前夕的宏观经济状况,有三段时期的消费者物价指数(简称CPI)

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