中国铁建房地产项目开发风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 22:16

本文关键词：中国铁建房地产项目开发风险评估研究　出处：《北京工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业具有政策影响性强、资金需求量大、建设周期长、市场变化快等特点，其发展过程中易受到社会政治、经济、文化、技术等很多因素的制约。因此，房地产业有很大的不确定性，面临着大量的风险。中国铁建房地产开发业务已经达到中等规模水平，但中国铁建房地产仍面临着以下问题：房地产板块内房地产企业间资源、发展和管理水平仍不均衡，互补、协同的整体发展格局仍有待建立；房地产业务城市开发深度和贡献仍不均衡，项目间管理能力仍不均衡；房地产生产不均衡的情况仍然存在，土地获取、项目开发、产品销售、开发资金仍有一定波动；此外，房地产行业的国家政策环境和市场不确定性大，企业内部管理将成为可能制约企业持续、健康发展的重要影响因素。本研究在大量阅读相关文献的基础上，对中国铁建房地产开发项目的战略风险、决策风险、运营风险和管理风险进行识别，找出了21个细分指标，构建了中国铁建房地产开发项目风险的评价指标体系，并运用层次分析法(AHP)确定了指标体系的权重，进而建立了模糊综合评价模型。最后，以中国铁建的25个项目为背景进行了实证研究，对比研究一线城市房地产和二线城市房地产的风险，，利用模糊综合评价模型对中国铁建房地产项目的开发风险进行了评估，结果表示，中国铁建房地产一、二线城市房地产开发项目面临的风险等级都是较高风险；中国铁建房地产一线城市房地产开发项目面临的最重要的风险为市场风险、政策风险和项目获取风险；中国铁建房地产二线城市房地产开发项目面临的最重要的风险为政策风险和开发过程决策风险。最后，本研究提出了中国铁建房地产开发风险防范和规避的建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has great influence of policy, capital demand, long construction period, the characteristics of fast changes in the market, are vulnerable to social politics, in the course of the development of economy, culture, technology and other factors. Therefore, the real estate industry has great uncertainty, facing a lot of risk. China Railway Real the real estate development business has reached the level of medium size, but China Railway Real estate still faces the following problems: the real estate sector in the real estate enterprise resources, development and management level is not balanced, complementary, cooperative overall development pattern remains to be established; the real estate business city development depth and contribution is still not balanced, project management the ability is not balanced; the real estate production imbalance situation still exists, land acquisition, project development, product sales, development funds still have certain fluctuation; in addition, the national policy environment of real estate industry And the market uncertainty is big, the internal management of the enterprise will be the important factor that may restrict the continuous and healthy development of the enterprise.
In this study, the related literatures on strategic risk, the Chinese railway construction real estate development project decision-making risk, identify operational risk and risk management, find out the 21 sub indexes, construct the China railway construction real estate development project risk evaluation index system, and using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the the weight of the index system, and then establishes a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Finally, the empirical study on 25 projects China railway as the background, the real estate risk comparison of first-tier cities and second tier city real estate, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of real estate development risk Chinese railway construction project was evaluated, the results indicated that Chinese Railway Real estate, facing the second city real estate development project risk level is high risk; Chinese Railway Real Estate first-tier cities real estate development projects face The most important risk for market risk, policy risk and risk for projects; the most important risk facing Chinese Railway Real estate second city real estate development project risk policy risk and development decision-making process. Finally, this study proposes China railway construction real estate development risk prevention and avoidance.

【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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