低碳经济下物流碳足迹动态预测研究——基于2004—2012年30省市面板数据

发布时间：2018-01-17 14:34

本文关键词：低碳经济下物流碳足迹动态预测研究——基于2004—2012年30省市面板数据　出处：《科技管理研究》2015年24期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为减轻雾霾污染,发展低碳经济,从能源消耗角度测算2004—2012年省域物流业的碳足迹,根据测算结果并参考政府工作文件,提出我国不同省域物流业在"十二五"和"十三五"期间的碳强度和能耗强度目标规划值,并引入灰色预测模型进行分析。结果表明,(1)我国物流碳足迹的排放总量一直呈现上升趋势,西北省份如宁夏、内蒙古等涨幅最快,上海、广东等沿海省份增速放缓,从物流碳足迹规模角度可分为四个层次。(2)"十二五"期间我国未能完成物流碳足迹动态节能减排目标,但在"十三五"期间可以完成,全国一半省份可以完成研究期内物流碳足迹节能减排"双强度"目标,并且大部分省市的"双强度"值呈下降趋势。
[Abstract]:In order to reduce haze pollution and develop low carbon economy, the carbon footprint of provincial logistics industry from the point of view of energy consumption is calculated, according to the results of the calculation and reference to the government working paper. The target planning values of carbon intensity and energy intensity in different provinces of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan are put forward, and the grey prediction model is introduced. The results show that the target planning value of carbon intensity and energy consumption intensity in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan are analyzed. China's logistics carbon footprint emissions have been on the rise, northwest provinces such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, such as the fastest increase, Shanghai, Guangdong and other coastal provinces slow growth. From the perspective of logistics carbon footprint scale, it can be divided into four levels.) during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China failed to complete the dynamic energy saving and emission reduction target of logistics carbon footprint, but it can be completed during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Half of the provinces in China can fulfill the "double intensity" target of carbon footprint energy saving and emission reduction during the research period, and the "double intensity" values of most provinces and cities show a downward trend.
【作者单位】：华东交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：2013年国家社科基金资助项目“物流产业生态系统视角下缓解城市雾霾压力的对策研究”(13BGL157) 2013年江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目“鄱阳湖生态经济区经济发展的物流能力支持研究”(GJJ13331)
【分类号】：F259.21
【正文快照】： 随着经济社会的持续发展,人们在从发展中获益的同时也面临着日益严重的环境污染、能源短缺和气候变化等问题,尤其以二氧化碳等温室气体引起的全球气候变暖问题成为国际社会目前面临的最严重挑战之一,基于全球气候变暖的严峻形势,引起了各个国家地区的广泛关注,并采取实际行动

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