北京市产业结构调整及技术进步与节能的动态关系

发布时间：2018-01-29 03:05

本文关键词： 节能技术进步产业结构调整指数分解向量自回归模型　出处：《环境科学研究》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了建立环境友好的能源结构与健全节能的保障机制,运用指数分解法对北京市1996—2010年的节能量进行了计算与静态分解,在此基础上以单位GDP能耗作为北京市能源消费水平和节能降耗状况的主要指标,通过建立产业结构调整-技术进步-单位GDP能耗的VAR(vector autoregression,向量自回归)模型,以及脉冲响应和方差分解,论述三者间的动态关系;利用北京市2011─2013年实际单位GDP能耗对VAR模型进行校验,模型计算误差在5%以下.结果表明:北京市在"九五"期间产业结构调整节能贡献大,占总节能量的55.60%,其主要依托第二、三产业间的结构调整;而在"十五"和"十一五"期间,技术进步节能量分别占同期总节能量的81.35%、85.41%.单位GDP能耗、产业结构节能、技术进步节能对单位GDP能耗的方差贡献率分别为13%、39%和48%.产业结构调整和技术进步对单位GDP能耗均产生周期性的影响,每个周期为5.0 a,影响逐渐减弱,2个周期后趋于零.其中,产业结构调整后的前2.5 a对单位GDP能耗的影响较显著,其中尤以第2年最为明显;技术进步后的3.0~5.0 a对单位GDP能耗的影响显著,尤以第3年最为明显,具有2.0 a的滞后期.因此,应结合产业结构调整和技术进步对单位GDP能耗影响的特征,对其节能效果做出科学评价,并应用于实际政策制订.
[Abstract]:In order to establish an environment-friendly energy structure and a sound energy conservation mechanism, the energy saving in Beijing from 1996 to 2010 was calculated and statically decomposed by exponential decomposition method. On this basis, the energy consumption per unit GDP is regarded as the main index of energy consumption level and energy saving and consumption reduction in Beijing. The VAR(vector autoregressive (VAR) model of industrial structure adjustment, technological progress and energy consumption per unit GDP was established. The dynamic relationship between the three is discussed as well as impulse response and variance decomposition. Based on the actual energy consumption per unit GDP in Beijing in 2013, the VAR model is calibrated. The model calculation error is less than 5%. The results show that the industrial structure adjustment in Beijing contributes a lot to energy saving during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, accounting for 55.60% of the total energy saving, which mainly depends on the structural adjustment between the second and third industries. During the period of "15" and "the Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the energy saving of technological progress accounted for 81.35% of the total energy saving in the same period, respectively. The energy consumption per unit GDP and the energy saving of industrial structure were 85.41%. The variance contribution rate of energy saving to unit GDP energy consumption is 130.39% and 48.8% respectively. The adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress have a periodic effect on unit GDP energy consumption. The effect of each cycle is 5.0 a, the influence gradually weakens, and after two cycles tends to zero, the first 2.5 a after industrial structure adjustment has a significant effect on the energy consumption per unit GDP. The second year is the most obvious; The energy consumption per unit GDP was significantly affected by 3.0 ~ 5.0 a after technological progress, especially in the third year, with a lag of 2. 0 a. According to the characteristics of industrial structure adjustment and technological progress on energy consumption per unit GDP, this paper makes a scientific evaluation of its energy-saving effect and applies it to the formulation of practical policies.
【作者单位】：清华大学环境学院;陕西师范大学国际商学院;国家环境保护大气复合污染来源与控制重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71101133) 国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD051) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-11-0725)
【分类号】：F127;F206
【正文快照】： 2.国家环境保护大气复合污染来源与控制重点实验室,北京1000843.陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119北京市作为我国政治、经济、文化中心,对全国的发展起着至关重要的作用.从近20年的发展历程看,北京市第一、二产业的比重逐渐下降,第三产业迅速成长为现阶段的主要产业.这

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