吉林省农村金融发展对农民收入影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-29 17:33

本文关键词： 农村金融农民收入协整分析脉冲响应函数　出处：《吉林财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“三农”问题一直以来都是我国政府亟需解决的问题，它关系着我国的经济发展、社会稳定、国民素质，而解决这一问题的关键就是促进农村及农业发展，增加农民的收入水平，提升农民的生活水平。经过近几年的调查数据表明，虽然农民收入近几年有所提高，可是我们不能被表面现象所蒙蔽。农民收入水平的提高，不但能改善农民的生活水平，还能促进我国农村经济发展，加快小康社会建设的步伐，促进和谐社会的构建。对于吉林省而言，伴随着近几年经济迅猛发展，金融产品种类日益增多，农村金融发展的地位日益凸现出来，渐渐地为大家所重视，农村金融发展如何进一步加强对“三农”的支持是我国新农村建设中的重要问题。所以本文立足于吉林省农村金融发展的角度，对如何增加农民收入水平做进一步的分析，力求找出影响方式、途径和解决办法。所谓农村金融即农村货币资金的融通，是指在农村地区以及与农业有密切关系的各个领域中，以信用手段为农民、农业和农村经济服务而筹集、分配和管理农村货币资金的活动。本文主要选取了“农村储蓄比率”和“农村信贷比率”作为农村金融的数据体现形式。农村金融的发展，对农业发展及农村经济发展起到一定的促进作用，对农业生产起到推进作用，只有农民的生产成规模了，不再单纯的依靠种植收入，农民的生活水平才会有质的提高，使农村生产模式形成良好的可持续性的循环。本文实证部分如下：首先，我们对吉林省1979年至2011年的数据进行时间序列分析，根据平稳性检验得出农民收入水平LNRI、农村储蓄比率LNRS、农村信贷比率LNRL和农村固定资产投资LNCA它们的原序列都是非平稳序列，它们的一阶差分序列都是平稳序列，即它们都是一阶单整I(1)的；对LNRS、LNRL、LNCA与LNRI序列之间的协整关系进行JJ检验：农村储蓄比率、农村信贷比率、农村固定资产投资与农民收入水平之间存在长期的稳定的均衡关系；在最优滞后期1时，通过格兰杰因果检验发现：农村储蓄比率是农民收入水平的格兰杰原因，农村固定资产投资不是农民收入水平的格兰杰原因；通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解可以了解：随着吉林省农民储蓄能力的不断增强在长期趋势上对农民的增收起到积极的促进作用，因为农民储蓄能力的提升，意味着可支配收入就会相应增加，此时农民可以投资于完善自身教育，使自己参加培训，提升技术水平技能，可以投资农民的生产性固定资产等方面，所以这是农民收入水平增加的影响原因，而吉林省农村信贷和农民收入属于正相关，虽然短期内作用不明显，但是长期趋势上还是对农民收入起到促进作用，农民要想扩大生产规模，就必须有资金做后盾，所以农村信贷的发展为农民生产提供保障。其次，是对吉林省8个地级市的2003年至2012年的面板数据分析，对农村金融发展如何影响吉林省地级市的农民收入水平进行地区差异的论述：长春、吉林、四平都是吉林省经济发展比较好的城市，但是这些地区共同存在的问题就是对小农经济的扶持力度不够，过多的关注于城市本身的发展，，使得这些地区的农村发展较城市发展相对落后，所以城乡收入差距也相对较大。从吉林省各地区整体来看，我省经济较为发达的地区相比贫困地区拥有更完善的金融体系，农村金融发展对农民收入增长的影响也越大。
[Abstract]:The "three rural issues" has always been our government need to solve the problem, which is related to China's economic development, social stability, national quality, and the key to solve this problem is to promote rural and agricultural development, increase farmers' income, improve the living standards of farmers. Through the survey data in recent years that, although in recent years has increased the income of the farmers, but we can not be fooled by the surface phenomenon. Improvement of farmers' income level, not only can improve the living standards of farmers, but also promote the development of rural economy in China, accelerate the pace of construction of a well-off society, promote the building of a harmonious society. As for Jilin Province, accompanied by rapid the economic development in recent years, financial products are increasing, the development of rural finance is becoming increasingly prominent, gradually to the attention, the rural financial development to further strengthen the "Three Rural "Support" is an important issue in the construction of new countryside in China. Therefore, based on the perspective of rural financial development in Jilin Province, this paper makes further analysis on how to increase farmers' income level, and tries to find ways, ways and solutions to influence them.
The so-called rural financial and rural monetary financing, refers to various fields in rural areas and agriculture are closely related, by means of credit for farmers, agriculture and rural economy and raise the service, the allocation of funds and management of rural monetary activities. This paper selects the "rural savings rate" and "rural credit ratio" as the rural financial data form. The development of rural finance, to promote the development of agriculture and rural economic development, to promote the role of agricultural production, farmers only production scale, no longer simply rely on planting income, the living level of farmers will have to improve the quality of the rural production mode the formation of sustainable good circulation.
In the empirical part of this paper is as follows: firstly, we analyze the time series of Jilin province from 1979 to 2011 data, according to the stationary test that the income level of farmers LNRI, rural savings rate LNRS, the original sequence of their rural credit and rural fixed assets investment ratio of LNRL LNCA are non-stationary sequence, their first-order difference sequence is a stationary series, they are integrated of order 1 I (1); LNRS, LNRL, JJ test the relationship between LNCA and LNRI sequences of the association: rural savings rate, rural credit ratio, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between fixed assets investment and the income level of farmers in rural areas; optimal lag in late 1, the Grainger causality test shows that the rural savings rate is the Grainger reason of farmers' income level, Grainger reason of rural fixed assets investment is not the level of income of the farmers; through the pulse response Should the function and variance decomposition can understand: with the savings of farmers in Jilin province to strengthen the capacity of the long-term positive effect on Farmers' income, because farmers savings capacity, mean disposable income will increase, the farmers can improve its investment in education, to participate in the training, promotion the technical level of production skills, other aspects of fixed assets investment can farmers, so this is the reason affecting the income level of farmers increased, and the credit in rural areas of Jilin province and the income of the farmers is positively related, although the short-term effect is not obvious, but the long-term trend is still on the income of the farmers to play a role in promoting the farmers to expand the scale of production and you must have financial backing, so the development of rural credit guarantee for farmers. Secondly, the 8 cities of Jilin province from 2003 to 2012 in the face In the data analysis of rural financial development income level of farmers how to influence the city of Jilin province were discussed: the regional differences in the Changchun, Jilin, Siping economic development in Jilin province are relatively good city, but the existence of these problems is the common area of the small peasant economy support is not enough, too much attention to the development of the city itself that makes the rural development in these areas than the city development is relatively backward, so the income gap between urban and rural areas is also relatively large. From the whole of each area in Jilin Province, has a more perfect financial system of our province economy more developed regions in the poverty-stricken areas, rural financial development has more effects on the growth of farmers' income.

【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.35;F323.89;F224

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