中国城镇化经济绩效空间差异研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 11:26

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：经济增长　出处：《统计与决策》2015年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章基于1978~2011年全国城镇化率与人均GDP时间序列数据,建立var模型,运用脉冲响应函数、方差分解、格兰杰因果关系检验分析得出城镇化对经济增长有积极的促进作用,同时经济增长对城镇化发展也有促进作用;采用省域2005~2011年城镇化率和人均GDP的面板数据,建立空间计量模型进一步分析城镇化对经济发展的贡献度,分析得出全国城镇化每提高一个百分点,人均GDP增长约为0.93个百分点,东中部地区城镇化每提高一个百分点,人均GDP增长约为3.14个百分点,西部地区城镇化每提高一个百分点,人均GDP增长约为0.32个百分点,贡献度为东中部全国西部。提出积极推进城镇化建设,在中西部地区积极培育城市圈与城市群,打造城市经济圈,发挥增长极的辐射带动作用,缩小东西部城镇化效率差距的建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of urbanization rate and per capita GDP time series from 1978 to 2011, this paper establishes a var model. By using impulse response function, variance decomposition and Granger causality test, it is concluded that urbanization has a positive effect on economic growth. At the same time, economic growth also promotes the development of urbanization. Using the panel data of urbanization rate and per capita GDP from 2005 to 2011, a spatial econometric model is established to further analyze the contribution of urbanization to economic development. The analysis shows that for each increase of one percentage point in urbanization, the per capita GDP growth is about 0.93 percentage points, the average per capita GDP growth is about 3.14 percentage points for each increase of urbanization in the eastern and central regions, and one percentage point for each increase in urbanization in the western region. The per capita GDP growth rate is about 0.32 percentage points, with a contribution of the eastern, central and western parts of the country. It is proposed to actively promote urbanization, actively foster urban circles and urban agglomerations in the central and western regions, create urban economic circles, and give play to the radiation-driven role of the growth poles. The suggestion of narrowing the disparity of urbanization efficiency between east and west.
【作者单位】： %E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E7%94%9F%E9%99%A2;%E5%8D%8E%E4%B8%AD%E5%B8%88%E8%8C%83%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%A6%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E4%B8%8E%E7%8E%AF%E5%A2%83%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E5%AD%A6%E9%99%A2;" target="_blank">中国地质大学<武汉>研究生院;华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BGL155)
【分类号】：F224;F299.21

【参考文献】