开发商视角下预期对城市住宅地价的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 13:22

本文选题：预期　切入点：城市住宅地价　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国自1998年开始实施城镇住房制度市场化改革，房地产市场得到了快速而迅猛的发展，市场对住房的刚性需求，投机、投资性需求都大大增加。在此刺激下，为满足住宅市场的需求，开发商对土地的需求也日益增加。但是土地市场和房地产市场的表现却不同步，在房价企稳的2011年，多地出现土地流标、流拍，而在堪称“史上调控最严”的2013年，土地市场却火爆异常，地王频现。本文正是在这一背景下，提出开发商以企业战略和利润最大化为前提，其预期对土地价格造成了显著影响的假设，并从理论和实际方面来分析和验证这一假设。首先，通过阅读和梳理国内外的相关文献，了解有关土地价格影响因素的研究现状，以及预期理论的发展及其在房地产市场中的运用；其次，根据预期理论的相关描述和应用，并结合中国房地产市场的发展现状，判断出国内土地市场处于适应性预期和理性预期之间的有限理性预期状态，并判断出开发商由于其组织性、专业性和信息来源的多元性，更接近于理性预期；然后，系统的分析和梳理了影响土地价格宏观因素、微观和其他因素，并通过住宅市场和土地市场的联动关系，站在开发商的角度分析土地价格的形成过程，明确了站在开发商角度分析土地价格的必要性，据此从宏观和微观层面建立了理论模型。最后，对建立的理论模型进行实证分析。在宏观层面上，以35个大中城市10年的土地价格作为研究对象，选取了9个影响土地价格的宏观因素，其中包含了开发商对房价和城市增长的预期，运用面板数据模型进行分析，结果表明预期房价增长1%，土地价格增长9.62%，城市人口每增长一万人，土地价格增加15.1元。在微观层面上，选取重庆市2012—2014年三年来居住用途土地成交量前四名的区域作为研究样本，，运用特征价格模型进行分析，结果表明房价和人口增长预期会对城市住宅地价产生正向影响，且不同地区影响程度不一样。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China began to implement the market-oriented reform of urban housing system. The real estate market has developed rapidly and rapidly. The rigid demand for housing, speculation and investment demand have increased greatly. In order to meet the demand of the housing market, developers' demand for land is also increasing. But the performance of the land market and the real estate market is out of sync. In 2011, when house prices stabilized, land flow signs appeared in many places. In 2013, which is called "the strictest regulation in history", the land market is hot and abnormal, and the land king appears frequently. Under this background, this paper puts forward that the developer takes the enterprise strategy and the profit maximization as the premise. The hypothesis that its expectation has a significant impact on the land price is analyzed and verified theoretically and practically. First of all, by reading and combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, to understand the current situation of research on the factors affecting land prices, as well as the development of the expected theory and its application in the real estate market; secondly, According to the related description and application of expectation theory and the development of Chinese real estate market, it is concluded that the domestic land market is in the state of limited rational expectation between adaptive expectation and rational expectation. And it is judged that the developers are closer to rational expectations because of their organizational, professional and diversified sources of information. Then, the system analyzes and combs the macro, micro and other factors that affect land prices. And through the linkage relationship between the housing market and the land market, the paper analyzes the forming process of the land price from the angle of the developer, and clarifies the necessity of analyzing the land price from the angle of the developer. Finally, the empirical analysis of the theoretical model is carried out. At the macro level, the price of land in 35 large and medium-sized cities for 10 years is taken as the research object. This paper selects 9 macro factors that affect land price, including developers' expectation of housing price and urban growth, and uses panel data model to analyze, The results show that housing prices are expected to increase by 1%, land prices by 9.62%, urban population by 10,000 people and land prices by 15.1 yuan. At the micro level, four regions with the top four residential land transactions in the three years from 2012 to 2014 in Chongqing are selected as the research samples. By using the characteristic price model, the results show that housing price and population growth are expected to have a positive impact on urban residential land price, and the degree of influence is different in different regions.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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