大型工程项目社会稳定风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 03:34

本文选题：大型工程项目　切入点：社会稳定风险　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国城镇化发展迅速,工程建设规模仍然很大,由此引发的群体性事件频发,对社会稳定造成破坏。因此,如何做好工程项目,尤其是大型工程项目的社会稳定风险评价工作成为业界和学术界亟待解决的问题。首先,本文基于项目风险管理理论,对项目社会稳定风险的国内外研究热点与进展进行探讨,总结并评述了当前研究中存在的问题和不足。在文献挖掘的基础上对大型工程项目社会稳定风险的概念进行了界定,并予以详细解释与分析;其次,通过对现有的各种社会稳定风险指标体系进行分析,提出了初始风险清单,基于对资深专家和项目经理的咨询,构建了涵盖合法合理性、社会及安全、经济利益、征地拆迁、生态环境、管理制度以及媒体舆论等7方面风险因素的大型工程项目社会稳定风险评价体系;第三,本文对比了常用的定性与定量评价方法的优劣,决定将神经网络理论作为基本方法,在BP神经网络基础之上,针对大型工程项目社会稳定风险的非线性、复杂性特征,构建了基于学习矢量量化算法和径向基函数的大型工程项目社会稳定风险评价模型,用以确定社会稳定风险的等级水平及具体值;然后采用问卷调查的方式获取样本数据用于风险评价模型的实证检验,得到风险等级的分类结果以及具体的风险值,证实该模型预测的准确度较高;结尾点明了本研究的不足并指出了未来有待深入研究的方向。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the scale of engineering construction is still very large, and the mass incidents caused by it are frequently occurring, thus causing damage to social stability. Therefore, how to do a good job in engineering projects, In particular, social stability risk assessment of large engineering projects has become an urgent problem to be solved in the industry and academia. Firstly, based on the theory of project risk management, this paper discusses the domestic and foreign research hotspot and progress of social stability risk of projects. This paper summarizes and comments on the existing problems and shortcomings in the current research. On the basis of literature mining, it defines the concept of social stability risk of large-scale engineering projects, and explains and analyzes it in detail. Secondly, Based on the analysis of the existing risk index system of social stability, the initial risk list is put forward. Based on the consultation of senior experts and project managers, the author constructs a system that covers legal rationality, social and safety, economic benefits, land expropriation and relocation. Ecological environment, management system, media opinion and other risk factors of large-scale engineering project social stability risk assessment system; third, this paper compared the advantages and disadvantages of the commonly used qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods, Decides to take the neural network theory as the basic method, on the basis of BP neural network, aiming at the nonlinear and complex characteristics of social stability risk of large-scale engineering projects, Based on learning vector quantization algorithm and radial basis function, the risk evaluation model of social stability of large engineering project is constructed to determine the level and specific value of social stability risk. Then the sample data are obtained by questionnaire for the empirical test of risk assessment model, and the classification results of risk grade and the specific risk value are obtained, which proves that the prediction accuracy of the model is high. At the end of this paper, the shortcomings of this study are pointed out and the future research directions are pointed out.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D631.4;F281;TP183

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