我国生猪价格波动新特征——基于HP和BP滤波法的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-24 15:43

本文选题：生猪价格　切入点：HP、BP滤波　出处：《农村经济》2015年06期

【摘要】：为分析我国生猪价格的波动特征及成因,探寻平抑生猪价格波动周期的有效途径,本文采用HP和BP滤波法对比分析了2000~2013年我国生猪价格的波动特征。研究结果显示,2008年前后我国生猪价格周期波动差异显著,与2008年之前相比,我国生猪价格在上涨周期内伴随出现了较明显的下跌周期,在整个大周期里伴随着小周期,且大周期中的下跌周期变短;周期波动振幅较之前有所放大,同时波动周期逐渐丧失规律性;而2008年以后出台实施的生猪产业相关调控政策对平抑生猪价格波动作用不显著。因此,需要进一步完善生猪价格的调控政策,完善生猪价格信息监控与预警机制,并做好疫情预防监控工作,促进我国生猪产业持续健康有序发展。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the fluctuation characteristics and causes of live pig price in China, and to find an effective way to stabilize the fluctuation cycle of live pig price, In this paper, HP and BP filtering methods were used to compare and analyze the fluctuation characteristics of live pig price in China from 2000 to 2013. The results showed that the fluctuation of hog price cycle before and after 2008 was significant, compared with that before 2008. The hog price in our country has been accompanied by a more obvious period of decline in the rising cycle, a small period in the whole large cycle, and a shorter period of decline in the large cycle, and the amplitude of the periodic fluctuation is larger than that of the previous period. At the same time, the fluctuation cycle is gradually losing its regularity; however, the regulation and control policies related to the pig industry issued after 2008 have no significant effect on stabilizing the fluctuation of pig prices. Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the regulation and control policy on the price of live pigs. Improve the information monitoring and early warning mechanism of pig price, and do a good job of prevention and control of epidemic situation to promote the sustainable healthy and orderly development of pig industry in China.
【作者单位】：长江大学主要粮食作物产业化湖北省协同创新中心;长江大学长江经济带发展研究院、长江大学江汉平原农村经济研究所、长江大学湖北农村发展研究中心;长江大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F323.7

【相似文献】