经济波动对中国产业结构演进的研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 06:44

本文选题：经济周期波动　切入点：产业结构变动　出处：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：社会经济发展与产业结构的调整之间是相辅相承的关系,两者统一于人类社会发展规律之中。一般地,经济社会从低级的奴隶制度到高级的资本主义制度再到更高级的社会主义制度的规律依次运动与发展,促使社会产业结构逐步调整,推动着产业结构由低级向高级演进。但经济的发展并不是一帆风顺的,而是曲折前进的。在不同的经济波动阶段,其对产业结构的影响方向和程度可能存在很大的差别,从而会导致产业结构转变也呈现出不同的变动趋势。自1929年爆发了全球性经济危机以来,关于经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性研究层出不穷,国内也有不少学者也涉足该领域的研究,但侧重于研究产业结构演进对经济周期波动的效用性,而研究经济周期波动对产业结构演进作用就较为鲜有。因此,本文重点进行经济周期波动对我国产业结构演进研究就具有十分重要的意义。本文以西方经济学为基础,以经济周期波动理论与产业结构演进理论为科学指导,在吸收并借鉴前人相关研究的基础上,动态分析我国经济扩张和收缩对产业结构变动程度及变动方向的影响。在研究过程中,首先运用贝叶斯SETAR模型对我国经济周期进行识别划分,并运用Granger因果检验方法对经济波动与产业结构变动关系进行因果判断。结果表明,贝叶斯SETAR方法能有效识别出我国经济的扩张和收缩两个波动阶段,同时Granger因果检验也证明经济周期波动是我国产业结构变动的原因。然后定性分析经济周期波动对产业结构整体变动的影响,并进一步分析经济周期波动对三次产业中各个行业或部门的变动。通过实证分析,得出以下结论：我国经济周期波动是产业结构向合理化和高级化演进的推动力；经济扩张与收缩阶段对产业结构变动和产业部门结构变动的影响方向和程度不尽相同,经济扩张对渔业、牧业、牧业、冶金工业、化学工业、石油工业、建材工业、建筑业、批发和零售业、金融业、房地产业等行业的影响较大,而在经济收缩时期,则农业、林业、冶金工业、电力工业、煤炭工业、机械工业、纺织工业等行业受经济下行的影响较为显著。
[Abstract]:Social and economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure are complementary relations, they are unified in the laws of human social development. The laws of economic and social development from the lower level of slavery to the advanced capitalist system and to the higher level socialist system were followed by the movement and development, which prompted the gradual adjustment of the social industrial structure. Promoting the evolution of industrial structure from lower level to higher level. However, the development of economy is not plain sailing, but twists and turns. At different stages of economic fluctuation, the direction and degree of its influence on industrial structure may vary greatly. Since the global economic crisis broke out in 1929, the research on the correlation between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure has emerged one after another. There are also many scholars in China who are involved in this field, but focus on the utility of the evolution of industrial structure to the fluctuation of economic cycle, but it is rare to study the effect of the fluctuation of economic cycle on the evolution of industrial structure. This paper focuses on business cycle fluctuations for the evolution of industrial structure in China has a very important significance. This paper is based on western economics, guided by the theory of business cycle fluctuation and the evolution of industrial structure, on the basis of absorbing and drawing lessons from previous studies. Dynamic analysis of the impact of economic expansion and contraction on the changing degree and direction of industrial structure in China. In the process of research, Bayesian SETAR model is used to identify and divide the economic cycle of our country. The Granger causality test method is used to judge the relationship between economic fluctuation and industrial structure change. The results show that the Bayesian SETAR method can effectively identify the two stages of economic expansion and contraction in China. At the same time, the Granger causality test also proves that the fluctuation of economic cycle is the reason of the change of industrial structure in China, and then qualitatively analyzes the influence of the fluctuation of economic cycle on the overall change of industrial structure. Through the empirical analysis, we draw the following conclusions: the economic cycle fluctuation is the driving force of the industrial structure evolution to rationalization and higher level; The impact of economic expansion and contraction on industrial structure changes and industrial sector structural changes are different. Economic expansion affects fisheries, animal husbandry, animal husbandry, metallurgical industry, chemical industry, petroleum industry, building materials industry, construction industry, Wholesale and retail trade, financial industry, real estate industry and other industries have a greater impact, but during the period of economic contraction, agriculture, forestry, metallurgical industry, electric power industry, coal industry, machinery industry, Textile industry and other industries affected by the economic downturn is more significant.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F121.3;F124.8

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