人民币汇率对湖南省经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-06 22:09

本文选题：汇率　切入点：湖南　出处：《中南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：摘要：随着湖南省对外开放度的不断提高,汇率作为联系对外经济的纽带,对湖南省经济增长的影响开始变大。人民币汇率形成机制改革后,汇率变得更具弹性,汇率风险也更大,作为中部省份的湖南,具有明显资源优势和人才优势,但对人民币汇率改革等国家金融政策的适应往往处于劣势。本文研究人民币汇率对湖南省经济增长的影响,从汇率的视角出发,探讨汇率风险的防范以及湖南经济在结构的调整、产业结构优化上的应对措施。本文采用了理论与实证相结合的方法,从理论上分析了汇率对湖南省经济影响的途径以及影响效果,并基于三部门国民收入模型推导出汇率对经济影响的条件。然后采用回归分析、平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法实证检验了价格水平传导、进出口贸易以及投资三条汇率传导路径的效果,发现汇率与湖南省价格水平、进口、出口以及固定资产投资均存在长期均衡关系,对价格水平和投资影响为正,对进口和出口影响为负。随后本文分析了人民币汇率变动对湖南省经济总量的影响,发现湖南省经济总量与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期均衡关系,人民币的升值对湖南省经济增长有紧缩效应。最后提出了湖南省应加大对出口型企业的支持力度,加快外贸产品结构调整,重视消费对经济的拉动作用等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the development of opening to the outside world in Hunan Province, the exchange rate, as a link between foreign economy and foreign economy, has become more and more important to Hunan's economic growth.After the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the exchange rate becomes more flexible and the exchange rate risk is also greater. As a central province, Hunan has obvious resource advantages and talent advantages.But the adaptation to the RMB exchange rate reform and other national financial policies is often at a disadvantage.This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate on the economic growth of Hunan Province, and from the perspective of exchange rate, discusses the prevention of exchange rate risk, the adjustment of the structure of Hunan's economy and the measures to optimize the industrial structure.In this paper, the method of combining theory with practice is used to analyze the ways and effects of the exchange rate on the economy of Hunan Province, and the conditions of the influence of the exchange rate on the economy are deduced based on the three-sector national income model.Then we use regression analysis, stability test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and other methods to empirically test the effect of price level transmission, import and export trade and investment, and find that the exchange rate and the price level of Hunan Province.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among import, export and fixed asset investment, which has a positive effect on price level and investment, and a negative impact on import and export.Then this paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on the total economic volume of Hunan Province, and finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the total economic volume of Hunan Province and the real effective exchange rate of RMB, and the appreciation of RMB has a contractionary effect on the economic growth of Hunan Province.Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as increasing the support for export-oriented enterprises, speeding up the adjustment of foreign trade product structure, and attaching importance to the pulling effect of consumption on the economy in Hunan Province.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F127

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