区域经济关联视角下河北省物流需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 03:13

本文选题：区域经济 + 关联性　；参考：《燕山大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：物流业是国民经济的基础性产业，是国家发展水平和综合实力的重要标志之一。随着经济全球化和区域一体化的不断加速以及IT技术的进步，物流作为“第三利润来源”的重要性越来越突出。本文的研究旨在深刻揭示河北省区域经济与物流发展之间的内在关联，，准确预测河北省区域物流需求，为相关企事业单位物流体系建设和政府部门区域物流发展规划提供决策依据。论文突破了仅依靠历史物流数据进行预测的局限，克服了以线性模型进行物流需求预测的不足，提出了针对性的政策建议，因而具有重要的理论意义和实践应用价值。首先，综述了国内外在物流需求方面的研究成果并指出当前研究中存在的不足，同时系统阐述了区域物流预测相关基础理论，为论文的研究奠定了理论基础。其次，全面分析河北省经济和物流发展现状，以Logistic增长模型为基础，计算河北省经济与物流发展之间的边际效应和弹性系数，有力揭示其相互促进的相关关系。再次，从区域经济与物流关联性角度，分析物流需求预测的影响因素并建立河北省物流需求预测指标体系，综合运用GM(1,1)模型和支持向量回归机方法构建河北省物流需求预测模型。最后，基于1990-2012年的数据，预测河北省物流需求，并根据预测结果和区域物流发展现状，提出针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Logistics industry is the basic industry of national economy and one of the important symbols of national development level and comprehensive strength.With the acceleration of economic globalization and regional integration and the progress of IT technology, the importance of logistics as the "third profit source" is becoming more and more prominent.The purpose of this paper is to reveal the inner relationship between regional economy and logistics development in Hebei Province, and to accurately predict the demand of regional logistics in Hebei Province.It provides decision-making basis for logistics system construction and regional logistics development planning of relevant enterprises and institutions.This paper breaks through the limitation of only relying on historical logistics data to forecast, overcomes the shortage of forecasting logistics demand by linear model, and puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions, so it has important theoretical significance and practical application value.First of all, this paper summarizes the domestic and foreign research results in logistics demand and points out the shortcomings of the current research. At the same time, it systematically expounds the basic theory of regional logistics prediction, which lays a theoretical foundation for the research of this paper.Secondly, based on the Logistic growth model, the marginal effect and elastic coefficient of Hebei Province economy and logistics development are calculated, and the correlation between them is revealed.Thirdly, from the angle of regional economy and logistics correlation, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of logistics demand forecasting and establishes the logistics demand forecasting index system of Hebei Province.The forecasting model of logistics demand in Hebei Province is constructed by using GMGM-1) model and support vector regression machine method.Finally, based on the data from 1990 to 2012, the logistics demand of Hebei Province is forecasted, and according to the forecast results and the current situation of regional logistics development, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.27;F127

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