政府财政赤字与就业相关性研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 03:16

本文选题：财政赤字 + 就业　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：财政赤字指一个国家财政年度中财政收入少于财政支出,是财政失衡的表现。政府运用政策手段调控经济时,也会使用财政赤字政策干预经济,将其作为国家重要的宏观经济政策之一,以实现经济增长、充分就业、物价稳定和国际收支平衡的宏观经济目标。特别是在此轮经济危机背景下,各国纷纷采取财政赤字政策稳定经济和就业。作为世界上人口总量最多的发展中国家,就业问题在我国国民经济中的地位尤为突出,这既是宏观经济问题,也是社会民生问题。对财政赤字和就业问题开展深入研究,不仅有较高的学术价值,更有重要的现实意义。本文采用理论研究和实证分析相结合的方法,对财政赤字和就业水平的相关性展开了深入的研究。首先,基于经济学经典理论和国内外学者的理论与实证研究文献,建立了财政赤字与就业的理论框架,分别从财政赤字的经济效应、财政支出政策和财政收入政策出发说明财政赤字对就业影响机制和效应,为后续的实证部分提供了理论依据。其次,从国际比较的角度考察赤字与就业的问题,研究美国、欧盟和一些亚洲国家就业相关的财政政策及赤字与就业情况,分析总结其经验教训,为我国日后的政策制定提供借鉴。最后,从实证分析角度对我国的财政赤字与就业相关性进行研究,基于中国1980-2012年的数据建立计量模型,分析我国财政赤字对城镇就业的影响,同时控制了经济增长、城乡收入差距、投资和教育的作用。通过单位根检验、协整检验、基于向量误差修正模型的格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法说明了中国财政赤字和城镇就业水平存在着显著的正相关关系,财政赤字水平的上升能有效扩大城镇就业,体现城镇化和收入水平的城乡收入差距、投资和教育也与就业有正向关系。在理论研究和实证分析的基础上,本文还就我国的现状提出了多项政策建议,认为政府经济政策的制定应将就业扩大目标摆在与经济增长目标同等重要的位置,通过财政赤字政策的调整和优化,加强支出政策的就业针对性,将预算赤字重点投入到公共建设、城镇化、教育等领域,提高减税政策的执行力度,发挥财政赤字对就业的推动作用,促进就业增长。
[Abstract]:Fiscal deficit refers to a country's fiscal year in which the fiscal revenue is less than the fiscal expenditure, is the performance of fiscal imbalance. When the government uses policy measures to adjust and control the economy, it will also use the fiscal deficit policy to intervene in the economy as one of the important macroeconomic policies of the country, in order to achieve economic growth and full employment. Macroeconomic objectives for price stability and balance of payments. Especially in this round of economic crisis, countries have adopted fiscal deficit policies to stabilize the economy and employment. As a developing country with the largest population in the world, the employment problem is especially prominent in our national economy, which is not only a macroeconomic problem, but also a social livelihood problem. It is not only of high academic value, but also of great practical significance to carry out in-depth research on fiscal deficit and employment. In this paper, the correlation between fiscal deficit and employment level is deeply studied by combining theoretical research with empirical analysis. First of all, based on the classical theory of economics and the theoretical and empirical research literature of domestic and foreign scholars, the theoretical framework of fiscal deficit and employment is established, respectively from the economic effects of fiscal deficit. The fiscal expenditure policy and the fiscal revenue policy explain the mechanism and effect of fiscal deficit on employment and provide the theoretical basis for the following empirical part. Secondly, from the perspective of international comparison, it examines the problems of deficit and employment, studies the employment-related fiscal policies of the United States, the European Union and some Asian countries, and analyzes and summarizes their experiences and lessons. To provide reference for the future policy formulation of our country. Finally, from the perspective of empirical analysis, this paper studies the correlation between fiscal deficit and employment in China, establishes a econometric model based on the data from 1980 to 2012, analyzes the impact of fiscal deficit on urban employment, and controls the economic growth at the same time. Urban and rural income gap, investment and the role of education. By means of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test based on vector error correction model and other econometrics methods, it is shown that there is a significant positive correlation between China's fiscal deficit and urban employment level. The increase of fiscal deficit level can effectively expand urban employment, reflecting the urban-rural income gap between urbanization and income level. Investment and education also have a positive relationship with employment. On the basis of theoretical research and empirical analysis, this paper also puts forward a number of policy suggestions on the current situation of our country, and holds that the goal of employment expansion should be placed in the same important position as the goal of economic growth in the formulation of government economic policy. Through the adjustment and optimization of the fiscal deficit policy, we should strengthen the employment orientation of the expenditure policy, put the budget deficit into public construction, urbanization, education and other fields, and enhance the implementation of the tax reduction policy. Bring into play the role of fiscal deficit in promoting employment and promoting employment growth.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.4;F249.2

【参考文献】