重庆市城镇化发展与产业结构演变关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 02:33

本文选题：城镇化率 + 产业结构　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放35年以来，中国城镇化水平不断提高。2013年11月召开的十八届三中全会，审议通过《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》，《决定》要求“坚持走中国特色新型城镇化道路，推进以人为核心的城镇化，推动大中小城市和小城镇协调发展、产业和城镇融合发展，促进城镇化和新农村建设协调推进……”。2014年3月出台的《国家新型城镇化规划（2014-2020年）》，对新型城镇化的目标、实现路径等均做了具体解释。与此同时，中国正处于经济转型的关键时期，底特律、鄂尔多斯等多个案例均告诫我们，产业结构必须与经济发展阶段相适应才能保障城市的持续发展。因此，及时调整经济结构、避免落入中等收入陷阱已然成为当务之急。而纵观世界上发达国家的发展历程，可以发现，服务业与高科技产业将成为中国经济转型过程中的重要抓手，城镇化则是发展现代产业尤其是服务业的重要支撑。文章首先对相关文献进行了梳理，并总结出前人的研究成果和不足。接下来，文章通过整理和分析1996-2012年重庆市城镇化与产业结构的相关数据，定性分析了重庆市直辖以来城镇化与产业结构发展的相关性和偏差性。一方面，，随着时间的推进，重庆市城镇化水平不断提升，产业结构也更加合理，并且两者在区域发展上也都呈现出明显的二元化；另一方面，通过与钱纳里标准结构模型以及国际上衡量城镇化与工业化融合程度常用的NU值进行比较，发现重庆市城镇化水平超前于工业化发展，重庆市城镇化与产业结构发展呈现出明显的偏差性，且在结构偏差系数上，第三产业表现出对就业良好的吸纳能力，但重庆市城镇化过程中，第三产业比重尚需进一步提高。之后，文章借助计量经济学方法，通过城镇化率、第二产业增加值比重、第三产业增加值比重三个指标，建立VEC模型，并通过Granger因果检验得出结论，即重庆市城镇化发展是产业结构调整的Granger原因，但产业结构调整并不是城镇化发展的Granger原因。根据此结论，文章从三次产业内部各行业比重、产业布局的调整等方面，对城镇化过程对三次产业内部的影响和作用进行了进一步分析。
[Abstract]:In the 35 years since the reform and opening up, China's urbanization level has been continuously improving. The third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, held in November 2013, Deliberating and adopting the "decision of the CPC Central Committee on several important issues on comprehensively deepening Reform," which requires "to adhere to the new road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics, to promote the urbanization with people as the core, and to promote the coordinated development of large, medium-sized and small cities and towns," Industry and town merge and develop, promote urbanization and new countryside construction to advance harmoniously. "the National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020", issued in March 2014, gives a concrete explanation of the goal and realization path of new-type urbanization. At the same time, China is in a critical period of economic transformation. Many cases such as Detroit and Ordos have warned us that the industrial structure must be adapted to the stage of economic development in order to ensure the sustainable development of the city. Therefore, timely restructuring of the economy to avoid falling into the middle-income trap has become a top priority. Looking at the development of the developed countries in the world, we can find that the service industry and high-tech industry will become an important hand in the process of China's economic transformation, and urbanization is an important support for the development of modern industry, especially the service industry. At first, the article combs the relevant literature, and summarizes the previous research results and shortcomings. Then, through the collation and analysis of the relevant data of urbanization and industrial structure in Chongqing from 1996 to 2012, this paper qualitatively analyzes the relativity and deviation between urbanization and industrial structure development since Chongqing's direct jurisdiction. On the one hand, with the development of time, the level of urbanization in Chongqing has been improved, and the industrial structure has become more reasonable. On the other hand, both of them have shown obvious dualism in regional development; on the other hand, By comparing with the standard structure model of Chenari and the NU value commonly used to measure the degree of urbanization and industrialization in the world, it is found that the level of urbanization in Chongqing is ahead of the development of industrialization. The urbanization of Chongqing and the development of industrial structure show obvious deviation, and in the coefficient of structural deviation, the tertiary industry has a good ability to absorb employment, but in the process of urbanization of Chongqing, the proportion of tertiary industry needs to be further improved. Then, with the help of econometrics, through the urbanization rate, the proportion of the added value of the secondary industry and the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry, the paper establishes the VEC model, and draws a conclusion through the Granger causality test. That is, the development of urbanization in Chongqing is the Granger reason of industrial structure adjustment, but the adjustment of industrial structure is not the Granger reason of urbanization development. According to this conclusion, the paper further analyzes the influence and function of urbanization process on the three industries from the aspects of the proportion of each industry within the three industries and the adjustment of the industrial layout.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F127

【参考文献】