异质性雇佣成本、劳动力流动与失业的持续性

发布时间：2018-04-30 17:21

本文选题：非正规就业 + 雇佣成本　；参考：《浙江社会科学》2015年04期

【摘要】：发展中国家经济中存在大量的非正规部门和非正规就业,并且正规部门与非正规部门具有不同的雇佣成本。基于这一事实,通过建立多部门异质性雇佣成本模型,文章考察了我国失业的持续性问题。贝叶斯模型选择的结论表明,多部门异质性雇佣成本模型较好地拟合了现实数据;贝叶斯脉冲响应函数显示,外生冲击下正规部门就业与非正规部门就业表现出不同的动态反应,这意味着考虑不同部门的差异是合理的;并且相对于单一部门雇佣成本模型而言,多部门异质性雇佣成本模型较好地刻画了失业的持续性特征。失业的贝叶斯冲击分解的结果表明我国存在显著的失业回滞现象,这一发现较好地解释了失业的持续性问题。因此,通过劳动力市场改革以缩小正规部门与非正规部门之间的差距将有利于缓解中国社会失业问题。
[Abstract]:There are a large number of informal sectors and informal employment in the economies of developing countries, and the formal sector and the informal sector have different employment costs. Based on this fact, this paper investigates the persistence of unemployment in China by establishing a multi-sector heterogeneous employment cost model. The conclusion of Bayesian model selection shows that the multisector heterogeneous employment cost model fits the actual data well, and the Bayesian impulse response function shows that, Under exogenous shocks, formal sector employment and informal sector employment show different dynamic responses, which means that it is reasonable to consider the differences between different sectors, and compared with the single sector employment cost model, Multi-sector heterogeneous employment cost model well describes the persistent characteristics of unemployment. The results of Bayesian shock decomposition of unemployment indicate that there is a significant phenomenon of unemployment hysteresis in China, which explains the persistence of unemployment. Therefore, reducing the gap between the formal sector and the informal sector through labour market reform will help alleviate the unemployment problem in China.
【作者单位】：中共广东省委党校经济学教研部;
【基金】：广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划学科共建项目《劳动力市场结构性改革与中国经济波动研究——基于动态新凯恩斯主义的视角(GD14XYJ02)》的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F249.1

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