地方官员来源去向影响辖区固定资产投资的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 22:10

本文选题：地方官员来源去向 + 政治晋升　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国地方官员的政治晋升主要由中央政府按照国家干部人事管理制度决定,由于目前其以经济绩效为主要的考核标准,因此地方官员需要推动辖区的经济增长在速度竞争中名列前茅以获得政治晋升。地方官员可以通过增加财政支出对于固定资产及其相关产业建设的投入从供给以及需求两个方面拉动辖区经济实现快速增长：短期内固定资产投资通过向社会扩大的再生产过程投入新的生产要素增加其生产资料供给,从供给方面拉动当地经济增长；由于固定资产投资主要投向的基础设施及其相关产业建设可以直接拉动社会总需求,但是其乘数效应需要经过时间积累后才能发挥作用,因此长期内从需求方面拉动当地经济增长。本文对于不同来源去向的地方官员影响辖区固定资产投资情况的假设如下：通过内部晋升出任与通过其他来源出任的地方官员相比,在任职初期阶段进行固定资产投资以拉动辖区经济增长的动力较强；离任后升职与离任后降职的地方官员相比,受到以往辖区人员请求其支持经济建设的可能较大,因此其对于以往辖区提供财政以及政策支持的可能也较大。由于固定资产及其相关产业的建设需要经过时间积累,因此本文对于固定资产投资及其影响因素的数据做了滞后1期以及2期的处理。本文通过Eviews计量软件对于2006—2010年间全国31个省自治区直辖市省委书记以及省长来源去向与辖区固定资产投资及其影响因素情况的面板数据进行回归后获得的定量分析结果表明：东部地区离任后升职的省长对于辖区固定资产投资产生滞后2期的显著正向影响。
[Abstract]:The political promotion of local officials in China is mainly determined by the central government in accordance with the personnel management system of the state cadres. Because of its current economic performance as the main assessment standard, local officials need to push the economic growth in the area to get the best political promotion in the speed competition.
Local officials can increase the economic growth from two aspects of supply and demand by increasing the investment of financial expenditure on the construction of fixed assets and related industries from supply and demand. In the short term, fixed assets investment will increase the supply of production data by investing new production factors into the process of reproduction to the social expansion, from the supply side. The growth of local economy is stimulated; the infrastructure and related industries that are mainly invested in fixed assets investment can directly stimulate the total social demand, but the multiplier effect needs time accumulation to play a role, so the local economic growth will be driven from demand for a long time.
In this paper, the assumption that the local officials of different sources affect the fixed assets investment in the jurisdiction is as follows: compared with the local officials who have been appointed by other sources, it is stronger to carry on the investment of fixed assets in the initial stage in order to stimulate the economic growth of the area. Local officials are likely to be more likely to support economic construction by the people of the past, so they are likely to provide financial and policy support for the past.
Since the construction of fixed assets and related industries needs to be accumulated through time, the data of fixed assets investment and its influencing factors are delayed 1 and 2 periods. This paper is based on Eviews software for the provincial Party committee secretary and provincial governor of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in the period from 2006 to 2010. The quantitative analysis results obtained by the panel data of fixed assets investment and its influencing factors show that the governor of the eastern region after leaving office has a significant positive effect on the 2 period of lagging behind the fixed assets investment in the area.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D630;F283

【参考文献】