人口年龄结构变化对我国城镇化发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 17:19

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 城镇化　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以人口年龄结构和城镇化为主题展开研究,以人口转变和人口迁移理论为基础,采用聚类分析法和面板数据模型分析了人口年龄结构变化对我国城镇化发展的影响,研究结果表明：年轻型的人口会抑制城镇化发展,老龄化与城镇化发展正向相关,成年型人口对城镇化发展促进作用显著。本文符合当前我国城镇化的时代主题,具有较强的实际意义。本文系统阐述了人口年龄结构变化对我国城镇化发展的影响机理。城镇化问题是一个系统性问题,本文抽取了与城镇化紧密相关的四个方面：人口迁移、产业结构、劳动力供给、消费水平,以人口转变和人口迁移理论为基础,分析了人口年龄结构变化如何通过四个渠道对城镇化发展产生影响。从多方面描述了我国人口年龄结构和城镇化现状及关系,以计划生育政策为切入点,分析了我国不同时期人口年龄结构的变化以及与之对应的城镇化进程；并着力阐述了目前我国城镇化中面临的人口年龄结构方面的一些矛盾,如“未老先富”与劳动力短缺、城乡人口年龄结构倒置等,还采用聚类方法分析了我国人口年龄结构区域差异和我国城镇化发展的区域不均衡。采用静态数据面板模型和动态面板数据模型,验证了年轻型人口对城镇化会有显著的阻碍作用,老龄化与城镇化正相关这一结论,并且前一期的老年抚养比对城镇化率的影响表现为显著的积极作用。本文结合我国国情,从“全面二胎”政策、城镇化与工业化、农业现代化、信息化同步发展、着力提高中西部城镇化水平、发展特色小城镇、有选择性的放开户籍限制等方面来提出相关的政策建议。本文的创新之处在于除了从宏观上分析了年龄结构变化对城镇化的影响还采用聚类等分析方法分城乡、分区域,深入的分析了年龄结构影响城镇化的内在机理。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of population transition and population migration, this paper analyzes the influence of the change of population age structure on the development of urbanization in China by cluster analysis and panel data model. The results show that the population with light age will restrain the development of urbanization, the aging is positively related to the development of urbanization, and the adult population plays a significant role in promoting the development of urbanization. This article accords with the current urbanization time theme, has the strong practical significance. This paper systematically expounds the influence mechanism of the change of population age structure on the development of urbanization in China. Urbanization is a systemic problem. This paper extracts four aspects closely related to urbanization: population migration, industrial structure, labor supply, consumption level, based on the theory of population transition and population migration. This paper analyzes how the change of population age structure influences the development of urbanization through four channels. This paper describes the current situation and relationship of population age structure and urbanization in China from many aspects, and analyzes the changes of population age structure in different periods of China and the corresponding urbanization process from the point of view of family planning policy. Some contradictions in the age structure of the population in China's urbanization are expounded, such as the shortage of labor force, the inversion of the age structure of urban and rural population, and so on. The regional difference of population age structure and the regional imbalance of urbanization in China are also analyzed by cluster method. The static data panel model and the dynamic panel data model are used to verify the significant hindrance effect of light population on urbanization, and the conclusion that aging is positively related to urbanization. And the influence of the old age raising ratio in the previous period was significant positive. According to the national conditions of our country, this paper tries to improve the level of urbanization in the central and western regions and develop small towns with characteristics from the policy of "comprehensive two-child", the simultaneous development of urbanization and industrialization, the modernization of agriculture and the development of information technology. Selective liberalization of household registration restrictions and other aspects to put forward relevant policy recommendations. The innovation of this paper is that in addition to the macro-analysis of the impact of age structure changes on urbanization, cluster analysis method is used to divide the urban and rural, sub-regional, in-depth analysis of the impact of age structure on the inherent mechanism of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.21

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