房地产行业经营活动营运资金需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 20:35

本文选题：经营活动营运资金需求 + 宏观环境　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业，具有巨大的行业带动性，其资金量级大、生产周期长、受政策影响明显的特点也决定了其营运资金管理的难度和重要性。快速周转是市场经营的王道，资金链断裂是所有企业的噩梦，房地产企业更应重视流动性风险控制。资金的筹集对资金需求的保障能力，是企业流动性危机存在与否的根源。对经营活动营运资金需求的界定和预测，可以使房地产企业有效地监控房地产企业的项目协同及资金使用情况，及时多渠道筹集资金，避免资金链断裂的风险，提供了房地产企业风险管理的新工具；其他利益相关者如银行也可以据此评估企业的信用状况及经营效率，决定授信额度。房地产行业经营活动营运资金需求的预测首先应建立在对营运资金需求的科学界定上，从资金来源及运用的角度，将企业的经济行为界定为筹资活动和营业活动；筹资活动为资金的筹集，服务于营业活动的价值创造行为；营业活动为资金运用，包括经营活动和投资活动。而经营活动营运资金需求界定为经营性流动资产和经营性流动负债的差额，是为了满足经营循环需要，扣除了经营性融资之外，真正需要从外部筹集的资金。然后从环境维度、组织维度和管理维度分析房地产行业经营活动营运资金需求的影响因素，包括通货膨胀、宏观调控政策等环境因素的影响，企业的规模、成长性及企业性质等组织层面因素的影响，以及资金管理模式、供应链管理方式、业务流程水平和信息化水平等管理因素的影响。宏观经济政策通过影响经济预期、影响资本成本、影响信息环境来影响微观企业经营；战略性管理因素影响经营活动营运资金需求的量级，战术性管理因素影响经营活动营运资金需求的精度，战略管理模式通过信息共享、资源共享、互信机制、决策效力来影响经营活动营运资金的需求量，而战略落地的执行精度取决于信息化契合度、人力资源质量和行政流程周期的影响，，通过影响执行效率进而影响资金周转效率。基于房地产行业经营活动营运资金需求的影响因素和影响机理分析，建立了经营活动营运资金需求预测的概念模型。从经营活动营运资金需求的三个渠道分别建立预测模型；预测模型的使用基于各房地产公司自身的特点，考虑了宏观环境因素及组织管理因素对经营活动营运资金需求的影响，选取经验数据实证回归系数。最后以万科为例，进行了经营活动营运资金需求预测的案例分析。案例表明，生产渠道和营销渠道具有较好的预测效果，而采购渠道由于土地储备预测的政策偶然性及企业信息的可获得性，规模增长意义较弱、预测精度较差。预测的意义在于应变，并发现关注点、加强管理，房地产行业经营活动营运资金需求预测研究提供了营运资金需求的真实视角、影响因素及影响机理的层次分析以及概念模型的参考借鉴，以期对房地产行业营运资金管理与预算管理和风险管理的融合提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is the pillar industry of national economy , has huge industry mobility , its capital magnitude is large , production period is long , the policy influence obvious characteristic also decides its operation fund management difficulty and importance .
Other stakeholders , such as banks , can also assess the credit status and operational efficiency of the enterprise and determine the credit line .

The forecast of the operating capital requirement of real estate industry should firstly be established on the scientific definition of the demand for working capital , and the economic behavior of the enterprise should be defined as financing activities and business activities from the source of funds and the angle of application ;
The fund - raising activities are the mobilization of funds and the value - creation behavior of the service in business activities ;
Operating activities are funds , including operating activities and investment activities . The operational capital requirement of the operation activities is defined as the difference between the operating liquidity and the operational flow liabilities . In order to meet the business cycle needs , it is necessary to raise funds from the outside .
Strategic management factors influence the demand of operating fund of operating activities , and the tactical management factors influence the precision of operating fund demand . The strategic management model affects the demand of operating funds through information sharing , resource sharing , mutual trust mechanism and decision - making effect . The implementation precision of strategic landing depends on the impact of information contract degree , human resource quality and administrative process cycle , and the efficiency of capital turnover is affected by influencing the implementation efficiency .

Based on the analysis of the influencing factors and influencing mechanism of the operating fund demand of the real estate industry , a conceptual model of the operational fund demand forecast is established , and a forecasting model is established from three channels of the operational capital requirement of the operating activities .
Based on the characteristics of each real estate company , the forecast model is based on the characteristics of each real estate company . The empirical data empirical regression coefficient is selected .
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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