东北寒地区域碳排放现状评价及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-14 07:59

【摘要】：随着社会经济的快速发展、人民生活的逐步提高，能源消耗也与日俱增，作为能源消耗的直接产物，二氧化碳排放水平也急剧升高，由此引发的温室效应通过各种方式影响着人们的生活。全球气候变暖，海平面上升，生物多样性的减少，臭氧层空洞，极端天气等词汇也越来越多的出现在视野中。各种自然灾害使世界意识到经济发展过程有必要对碳排放量进行控制，作为发展中国家的中国在当前世界范围内碳减排任务前，面临巨大压力。黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省作为典型的东北寒地区域，也是我国工业发展的摇篮，为建国初期经济社会发展贡献了特别重要的力量，但现阶段技术条件下，产业结构仍然以工业为主，技术比较落后，能源效率不高，这对于我国减排任务的完成是十分不利的。因此有必要对区域碳排放现状进行评价、并对其影响因素进行明确。本文以碳足迹方法和TaPio脱钩方法为基础，从总量与生产率两个角度对东北寒地区域碳排放现状从进行分析，总量分析结果表明东北寒地区域碳足迹逐渐增加，且未来由增加趋势，通过对碳足迹密度、碳足迹生态压力、碳足迹产值、碳足迹强度等指标当前碳排放现状对生态环境的影响进行评价，结果显示CFD指数均大于3，EPICF指数均大于1，表明环境压力较大，且未来有增长趋势，而VCF指数增长缓慢，CFI指数下降缓慢，表明技术对碳排放的影响不高，，单位能耗下降缓慢。从生产率结果表明，当前东北寒地区域碳利用水平不高，处于弱正效率阶段，从总体水平来讲辽宁省碳生产率最高，吉林省次之，黑龙江省碳生产率水平最低，但吉林省碳生产率有下降趋势。通过LMDI因素分解模型对碳排放进行因素分解分析，结果表明经济增长效应和人口规模效应为区域碳排放主要拉动因素，能源强度效应对区域碳排放主要抑制因素，而产业结构效应与能源结构效应在黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省的贡献方向不一致。产业结构效应在黑龙江省对碳排放起到抑制作用，在吉林省和辽宁省表现为拉动作用，能源结构因素对黑龙江省碳排放起到拉动作用，在吉林省和辽宁省表现为抑制作用。依据各省现状对分解分析的结果进行解释，明确产生差异的原因。通过东北寒地区域碳排放现状进行评价，通过分解分析方法并结合黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省实际情况对形成当前现状的影响因素予以明确，基于以上分析本文从产业结构调整、能源结构优化、低碳技术应用、加强生态保护、以及统筹发展规划，借鉴发展经验等方面出发为东北寒地区域“十二五”期间的节能减排任务顺利完成提供科学合理的支持。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and the gradual improvement of people's life, energy consumption is also increasing day by day. As a direct product of energy consumption, the level of carbon dioxide emissions is also rising sharply. The resulting Greenhouse Effect influences people's lives in various ways. Global warming, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, ozone hole, extreme weather and other words are more and more in the field of view. All kinds of natural disasters make the world realize that it is necessary to control the carbon emissions in the process of economic development. As a developing country, China is faced with great pressure before the current task of reducing carbon emissions worldwide. Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Liaoning Province, as typical northeast cold regions, are also the cradle of China's industrial development, and have contributed a particularly important force to the economic and social development in the early years of the founding of the people's Republic of China, but under the present technological conditions, The industrial structure is still dominated by industry, the technology is relatively backward and the energy efficiency is not high, which is very disadvantageous to the completion of the task of emission reduction in our country. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the current situation of regional carbon emissions and to clarify the influencing factors. Based on the carbon footprint method and TaPio decoupling method, this paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in the northeast cold region from the perspectives of total amount and productivity. The total amount of analysis shows that the carbon footprint of northeast cold region increases gradually. And from the increasing trend in the future, through the carbon footprint density, carbon footprint ecological pressure, carbon footprint output value, carbon footprint intensity and other indicators of the current carbon footprint impact on the ecological environment. The results showed that the CFD indices were all greater than 3 EPICF indices, which indicated that the environmental pressure was high and the future growth trend was higher, while the slow growth of VCF index showed that the CFI index decreased slowly, which indicated that the impact of technology on carbon emissions was not high, and the decrease of unit energy consumption was slow. The results of productivity show that the level of carbon utilization in northeast cold region is not high and is in the stage of weak positive efficiency. In terms of overall level, the carbon productivity of Liaoning Province is the highest, that of Jilin Province is the second, and that of Heilongjiang Province is the lowest. But Jilin Province carbon productivity has a downward trend. The factor decomposition analysis of carbon emissions by LMDI factor decomposition model shows that the economic growth effect and population scale effect are the main driving factors of regional carbon emissions, and the energy intensity effect is the main restraining factor of regional carbon emissions. The contribution direction of industrial structure effect and energy structure effect in Heilongjiang province, Jilin province and Liaoning province is different. The effects of industrial structure on carbon emissions were inhibited in Heilongjiang province, pulled in Jilin province and Liaoning province, pulled by energy structure factors, and inhibited in Jilin province and Liaoning province. The results of decomposition analysis are explained according to the current situation of each province, and the reasons for the differences are clarified. Through the evaluation of the status quo of carbon emissions in the northeast cold region, the factors influencing the formation of the present situation are made clear by the decomposition analysis method and the actual situation in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces. Based on the above analysis, this paper focuses on the adjustment of industrial structure, optimization of energy structure, application of low-carbon technology, enhancement of ecological protection, and overall planning for development. It provides scientific and reasonable support for the successful completion of the task of energy saving and emission reduction in the Northeast Cold region during the 12th Five-Year Plan.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F205

【参考文献】