房地产上市公司投资价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-08-05 12:06

【摘要】：房地产业作为宏观经济的重要承载体,其稳定有序地发展将极大地促进人民生活水平的提高、维持市场经济的稳定、推动国民经济的可持续发展。通过对近年房地产业的分析发现：一方面尽管面临国家强势的调控,但房地产开发、销售依然过热；另一方面,证券市场上地产股表现平平,而企业对外公布的年报中经营业绩却骄人。因此,投资者不能较好把握房地产上市公司的投资价值,做出理性的投资决策存在较大困难。基于此,本文提出以下研究目的：其一是梳理房地产企业特点及房地产上市公司投资价值的影响因素；其二,寻找目前综合排名靠前且受投资者青睐的房地产上市公司较为合理的内在投资价值,便于投资者决策。本文研究主要采用规范研究和案例分析相结合的方法,全文共分为六章,各章的主要内容如下：第一章,绪论。分析了研究背景,说明研究意义和目的,列示了本文的研究思路,最后合理预期了可能具有的贡献。第二章,文献综述。首先对西方企业价值评估理论方面的研究成果及投资价值影响因素进行梳理；国内文献方面,通过参考投资价值评估实践研究的成果,明确了下文研究的理论基础、模型方法。第三章,理论基础。本章从基础的理论及投资价值等方面梳理了本文研究中所用到的相关原理和基础。第四章,房地产企业投资价值影响因素分析及评估方法说明。本章首先对房地产企业的特殊性进行了剖析,进而对影响房地产上市公司投资价值的因素进行了全面分析,最后基于其特点确立了下文研究的方法和模型。第五章,房地产上市公司投资价值评估案例分析。本章以保利地产作为重点样本,运用剩余收益模型估测了其投资价值,并类推估测了所有9家样本企业的投资价值。第六章,研究结论、建议及局限性。对本文的研究内容进行了总结,就此分析了投资于房地产上市公司所面临的内部和外部的风险,并做出了建议,最后分析了研究的局限性。本文的主要结论和建议如下：第一,以保利地产、万科集团、金地集团等为代表的业内优质企业,其市场价格明显低于其内在投资价值,这是受宏观经济周期、国家政策调控以及市场中投资者观望态势浓厚等多方面因素造成的,其未来增值的潜力巨大,是良好的长线投资选择；第二,以金科地产为代表的少数房地产上市公司,尽管其近年来表现优异,但其因运营等多方面存在着潜在危机,一旦爆发将给企业造成巨大的损失,投资者在投资抉择时需要谨慎对待。本文可能的预期贡献有：第一,基于多角度梳理了房地产企业的特殊性；第二,从典型的预售模式、收入确认的滞后性角度,解释了房地产企业在证券市场上表现低迷和财务报表中优异的经营业绩之间的矛盾性；第三,结合杜邦分析体系,对剩余收益模型进行了修正,量化了行业内综合实力良好的数家房地产上市公司内在投资价值,有助于投资者决策。
[Abstract]:As an important carrier of macro economy, the real and stable development of the real estate industry will greatly promote the improvement of the people's living standard, maintain the stability of the market economy and promote the sustainable development of the national economy.
Through the analysis of the real estate industry in recent years, it is found that the real estate development and sales are still overheated on the one hand, while the real estate development and sales are still overheated. On the other hand, the real estate stocks in the securities market are flat, while the business performance of the annual reports published by the enterprises is arrogant. Therefore, the investment owners can not better grasp the investment of the real estate listed companies. There are great difficulties in making rational investment decisions.
Based on this, this paper puts forward the following research purposes: one is to comb the characteristics of real estate enterprises and the influencing factors of the investment value of real estate listed companies; secondly, to find the more reasonable intrinsic investment value of the real estate listed companies, which are currently in the front and favored by the investors, so as to facilitate the decision of the investors.
This paper mainly adopts the method of combining normative research with case analysis. The full text is divided into six chapters. The main contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter, introduction, analyzes the research background, explains the significance and purpose of the study, lists the research ideas, and finally reasonably anticipates the possible contributions.
The second chapter, literature review. First of all, the research results of the western enterprise value evaluation theory and the influence factors of investment value are combed; in the domestic literature, the theoretical basis and model method of the following research are clarified by reference to the achievements of the practice of investment valuation.
The third chapter is the theoretical basis. This chapter combs the relevant principles and foundations used in this study from the basic theory and investment value.
The fourth chapter is the analysis of the factors affecting the investment value of real estate enterprises and the method of evaluation. This chapter first analyzes the particularity of the real estate enterprises, and then analyzes the factors affecting the investment value of the real estate listed companies, and finally establishes the methods and models of the next research based on the characteristics of the real estate companies.
The fifth chapter, the case analysis of the investment value evaluation of the real estate listed companies. This chapter takes Pauli real estate as the key sample, estimates its investment value using the residual income model, and estimates the investment value of all 9 sample enterprises.
The sixth chapter, the conclusion, the suggestion and the limitation, summarizes the research content of this article, and analyzes the internal and external risks faced by the listed real estate companies, and makes some suggestions, and finally analyzes the limitations of the research.
The main conclusions and suggestions of this paper are as follows:
First, the high quality enterprises, represented by Pauli real estate, Vanke Group and Jindi group, are obviously lower in market prices than their intrinsic investment value. This is caused by many factors such as the macroeconomic cycle, national policy regulation and the strong view of the investors in the market. The potential of its future value-added is great, and it is a good long line investment. The choice of capital;
Second, a few real estate listed companies, represented by Jinke real estate, have a potential crisis in many aspects, such as operation, although their performance is excellent in recent years. Once the outbreak is going to cause huge losses to the enterprises, investors need to be treated carefully in the choice of investment.
The expected contributions of this article are as follows:
First, the particularity of real estate enterprises is discussed based on multiple perspectives.
Second, from the typical pre-sale mode and the lag of income confirmation, the contradiction between the performance of the real estate companies in the stock market and the outstanding performance in the financial statements is explained.
Third, combined with DuPont's analysis system, the residual income model was amended to quantify the intrinsic investment value of several real estate listed companies with good comprehensive strength in the industry, which would help investors to make decisions.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42

【参考文献】