农业碳排放库兹涅茨曲线实证研究
发布时间：2018-08-18 11:18
【摘要】：文章基于1998~2013陕西省10个市的面板数据,利用加入误差修正机制的动态面板协整模型,对农业碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的存在性进行验证。研究表明:人均第一产业产值对人均农业碳排放的影响不存在倒U型关系,仅依靠农业自身的发展并不能带动碳排放量的减少;人均国内生产总值对人均农业碳排放之间存在长期稳定的倒U型关系,拐点为人均国内生产总值27960.32元,各市达到拐点的预测时间存在较大的差异;人均农业碳排放短期波动的调整系数为-0.74,验证了分析结果的稳健性。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 10 cities in Shaanxi Province in 1998 and 2013, the existence of agricultural carbon emission Kuznets curve is verified by using the dynamic panel cointegration model with error correction mechanism. The results show that the per capita output value of primary industry does not have a negative U-shaped relationship on per capita agricultural carbon emissions, and the development of agriculture alone can not lead to the reduction of carbon emissions. The relationship between per capita GDP and per capita agricultural carbon emissions has a long-term stable inverted U-shaped relationship, the inflection point is 27960.32 yuan per capita GDP, and the forecast time of reaching the inflection point in each city is quite different. The adjustment coefficient of per capita agricultural carbon emission fluctuation is -0.74, which verifies the robustness of the analysis results.
【作者单位】： 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助项目(Z109021121)
【分类号】：F323.22;F224
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 10 cities in Shaanxi Province in 1998 and 2013, the existence of agricultural carbon emission Kuznets curve is verified by using the dynamic panel cointegration model with error correction mechanism. The results show that the per capita output value of primary industry does not have a negative U-shaped relationship on per capita agricultural carbon emissions, and the development of agriculture alone can not lead to the reduction of carbon emissions. The relationship between per capita GDP and per capita agricultural carbon emissions has a long-term stable inverted U-shaped relationship, the inflection point is 27960.32 yuan per capita GDP, and the forecast time of reaching the inflection point in each city is quite different. The adjustment coefficient of per capita agricultural carbon emission fluctuation is -0.74, which verifies the robustness of the analysis results.
【作者单位】： 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助项目(Z109021121)
【分类号】：F323.22;F224
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