河西走廊县域城镇化水平空间格局演变及驱动因素分析

发布时间：2018-08-21 08:21

【摘要】：城镇化是学术界倍受关注的重大课题,尤其新型城镇化理念的提出,关于城镇化问题的研究再度升温,成为学术界与政府部分共同关注的焦点话题。在经济全球化背景下,城镇化是国家实现现代化的必由之路,是实现区域协调发展、实现产业转型升级、解决农民问题、保持经济健康持续发展的强大引擎。当前,我国已进入全面建成小康社会的决定性阶段,快速的经济转型,城镇化迎来了深入发展的关键时期。河西走廊地处丝绸之路之要冲,其重要的战略地位,研究该地区城镇化发展,对推进该区域新型城镇化建设以及对响应建设丝绸之路经济带都有重要的意义。本文通过了解河西走廊城镇化现状,基于城镇化内涵,应用熵值法对该区域20个县域(1995-2012年)城镇化综合水平进行评价,借助GIS和GeoDA软件平台,测算城镇化重心的变化趋势,运用空间自相关分析县域之间空间差异,揭示城镇化空间格局演变的规律,并在此基础上运用空间地理加权回归模型分析各县域城镇化发展的驱动因素,研究结果表明:(1)城镇化综合水平测评结果:①20个县域城镇化综合水平均趋于逐年上升趋势,其中嘉峪关市、金川区综合得分最高,阿克塞和肃北得分次之、张掖和武威二市及所辖县区得分相对较低,城镇化综合水平西高东低以及层级差别特征明显;②各县域城镇化子系统演变表现出经济城镇化主导空间城镇化,影响社会城镇化作用明显,人口城镇化增长缓慢,凸显了河西走廊各县域粗放的城镇化发展模式;③各子系统在各县域表现出一高全高,一低全低的特征并且市、区级城镇发展明显高于县级城镇,在河西走廊大的地理环境下,城镇发展一体化特征不明显。(2)通过对河西走廊各县域城镇化重心迁移测算,空间自相关以及城镇化综合水平的热点区探索分析可知:①城镇化综合水平重心在酒泉市肃州区,重心由肃州区西北部向东南部再向东移动,时段性移动距离较长,连续时间断内移动距离较短,表现出局部地区的波动性和反复性;②城镇人口重心总体移动方向与城镇化综合水平重心移动相似,在个别年份特征比较明显,2000-2004年,每一年城镇人口重心移动幅度大,四年间移动方向呈“Z”型,其余年份重心移动不显著,也出现局部地区的波动和反复;③通过对Moran’s I指数的计算与检验,河西走廊各县域城镇化综合水平空间自相关不明显,空间格局呈现微集聚或弱集聚分布,总体格局较稳定;④对城镇化综合水平热点区*iG指数统计检验知,形成以嘉峪关市、玉门市、金塔县为中心的片状热点区和以甘州区、民乐县及凉州区、古浪县、天祝藏族自治县为主的块状冷点区,四个时间段内城镇化综合水平的热点区和冷点区空间格局较稳定,呈西北高簇值和东中南低簇值特征。(3)河西走廊各县域城镇化发展是自然和人为因素共同作用的结果,其中自然资源在城镇化过程中起基础性作用,政府力量起重要的引导作用。通过GWR模型对各县域城镇化影响因素分析可知,第二产业产值比重、人均GDP、人均固定资产投资、路网密度与人均水资源量对城镇化产生正向作用,而城镇人口密度产生负向效应,在不同区域各因素对城镇化影响差异明显,其中水资源对河西各县域城镇化水平限制作用大。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is a major issue of great concern to academia, especially the proposal of the new concept of urbanization. The research on urbanization has been heated up again, which has become the focus of attention of both academia and the government. Under the background of economic globalization, urbanization is the only way for the country to realize modernization, realize the coordinated development of the region and realize it. At present, China has entered a decisive stage of building a well-off society in an all-round way. Rapid economic transformation and urbanization have ushered in a critical period of in-depth development. The Hexi Corridor is located in the important position of the Silk Road, and its important strategic position. The development of urbanization is of great significance to the promotion of new urbanization and the response to the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt in the region.Based on the current situation of urbanization in the Hexi Corridor and the connotation of urbanization,this paper evaluates the comprehensive level of urbanization in 20 counties in the region (1995-2012) by using entropy method,with the help of GIS and GeoDA software. Taiwanese government estimates the change trend of urbanization center of gravity, uses spatial autocorrelation to analyze the spatial differences between counties, reveals the evolution law of urbanization spatial pattern, and uses spatial geographic weighted regression model to analyze the driving factors of urbanization development in each county. The results show that: (1) the comprehensive level of urbanization evaluation results: 1) 20. The comprehensive level of urbanization in all counties tends to increase year by year. Among them, Jiayuguan City, Jinchuan District scored the highest, Aksai and Subei followed, Zhangye and Wuwei City and their counties scored relatively low, the comprehensive level of urbanization was higher in the West and lower in the east, and the characteristics of different levels of urbanization subsystems in each county were obvious. Out of the Economic Urbanization dominant spatial urbanization, the impact of social urbanization is obvious, the slow growth of population urbanization, highlighting the extensive urbanization development model of each county in the Hexi Corridor; (3) each subsystem in each county shows a high-all-high, low-all-low characteristics and the city, district-level town development is significantly higher than the county-level town, walking in Hexi. Under the geographical environment of Langda, the characteristics of urban development integration are not obvious. (2) Through the calculation of the transfer of urbanization center of gravity, spatial autocorrelation and the analysis of the hot spots of urbanization comprehensive level in each county of Hexi Corridor, it can be concluded that: (1) the center of gravity of urbanization comprehensive level is in Suzhou District of Jiuquan City, and the center of gravity shifts from northwest to Southeast and then eastward. The movement of urban population center of gravity is similar to the movement of urbanization comprehensive level center of gravity, and the characteristics are obvious in individual years. From 2000 to 2004, the movement of urban population center of gravity in each year is large, moving in four years. The movement direction is "Z" type, the other years the center of gravity movement is not significant, there are local fluctuations and repetitions; 3) through the calculation and test of Moran's I index, the spatial autocorrelation of the comprehensive level of urbanization in each county in the Hexi Corridor is not obvious, the spatial pattern of micro-agglomeration or weak agglomeration distribution, the overall pattern of urbanization is relatively stable; According to the statistical test of *iG index in Heping hot spot area, the hot spot area with Jiayuguan City, Yumen City, Jinta County as the center and the cold spot area with Ganzhou District, Minle County and Liangzhou District, Gulang County and Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous County as the main are formed. The spatial pattern of hot spot area and cold spot area with comprehensive urbanization level in the four periods is relatively stable, showing northwest. (3) The development of urbanization in the counties of Hexi Corridor is the result of both natural and human factors. Natural resources play a fundamental role in the process of urbanization and government forces play an important role in guiding the process of urbanization. Heavily, per capita GDP, per capita investment in fixed assets, road network density and per capita water resources have a positive effect on urbanization, while urban population density has a negative effect on urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.27

【相似文献】