上市公司财务困境影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 20:55

【摘要】：2014年经济汇报显示我国去年国民生产总值增长了7.7%，增长势头良好。在我国经济大发展的环境下，上市公司为获得长足发展，其竞争也愈演愈烈。公司经营中的风险因素很多，如果不及时加以防范，有可能导致公司利益受损，甚至出现破产倒闭的情况。及早的对有关财务困境的影响因素进行分析，才能采取有效的措施防范公司陷入财务困境。另外，深入分析上市企业陷入财务困境的影响因素，对提高企业管理经营质量，促进我国市场经济的良性发展也是非常重要。本文通过整理相关文献资料和理论知识，首先把近年来不同学者对我国上市公司发生财务困境的研究成果做了基本的概括和阐述。在研究中把被特殊处理的上市公司为财务困境的研究对象，一共选取了近三年的74家上市公司，其中37家是被ST公司，另外37家是与之配对的财务正常的公司。结合以往学者对财务困境影响因素的分析，本人选取了反映财务因素和非财务因素的共57个指标变量。财务指标变量分别包括盈利能力、股东获利能力、现金流量能力、营运能力、发展能力、风险水平、短期偿债能力和长期偿债能力八个大类；非财务指标包括股权结构和公司治理两个大类。通过wilcoxon符号秩检验对指标数据差异的显著性进行检验，剔除没有显著性差异的指标后，构建了较为全面的指标体系。然后利用SPSS软件对指标数据进行因子分析，提取公共因子并得出因子得分矩阵，，根据因子得分建立控制函数，以此来对每一类别的指标分别构建二元Logistic回归模型。最后在融合各指标类别中有代表性的指标后，构建一个综合指标的回归模型，进一步对财务困境的影响因素进行实证分析。本文最后，对论文进行了总结和反思，并提出了几点建议，以便读者在实际中能应用到此次的实证成果，快捷有效的进行分析研究。最终希望本文的研究能对投资者进行财务分析，管理者进行公司治理起到一定的指导作用。
[Abstract]:The 2014 economic report showed that China's gross national product (GNP) grew by 7.7% last year, with a good momentum of growth. In the environment of great economic development of our country, the competition of listed companies is becoming more and more intense in order to obtain rapid development. There are many risk factors in the management of the company, if it is not prevented in time, it may lead to the loss of the interests of the company, and even the situation of bankruptcy and bankruptcy. In order to take effective measures to prevent companies from falling into financial distress, we can analyze the influencing factors of financial distress as early as possible. In addition, it is also very important to analyze the factors that affect the financial distress of listed enterprises in order to improve the management quality of enterprises and promote the healthy development of market economy in our country. In this paper, by sorting out the relevant literature and theoretical knowledge, first of all, different scholars on the financial distress of listed companies in China in recent years to do a basic summary and elaboration. In the study, the listed companies which are specially treated are regarded as the research objects of financial distress. A total of 74 listed companies have been selected in the past three years, of which 37 are ST companies, and the other 37 are matched with them. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of financial distress in the past, I selected 57 index variables which reflect financial factors and non-financial factors. Financial index variables include profitability, shareholder profitability, cash flow capacity, operating capacity, development capacity, risk level, short-term solvency and long-term solvency. Non-financial indicators include equity structure and corporate governance two broad categories. The significance of the difference of index data was tested by wilcoxon sign rank test, and a more comprehensive index system was constructed after excluding the index without significant difference. Then we use SPSS software to analyze the index data, extract the common factor and get the factor score matrix, and establish the control function according to the factor score to construct the binary Logistic regression model for each index. Finally, a regression model of comprehensive indicators is constructed after merging the representative indicators in each index category, and then the factors affecting financial distress are analyzed empirically. Finally, this paper summarizes and reflects on the paper, and puts forward several suggestions, so that readers can be applied to the empirical results in practice, and analysis and research is carried out quickly and effectively. Finally, it is hoped that the research in this paper can provide guidance to investors and corporate governance.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F276.6;F224

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