政府投资、民间投资与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-15 22:14

【摘要】：投资是促进我国经济增长的重要手段,并且对于不同的地区,投资对经济增长的影响也是不一样的。投资包括政府投资、民间投资以及外商投资,其中政府投资与民间投资占据中国总投资的主导地位,并且它们在经济增长中的作用也是不同的。因此,针对我国当前的特殊国情,在扩大内需的前提下,如何优化投资结构,如何使政府投资和民间投资协同发展,以此更有效地促进国经济增长显得特别重要。为了深入考察政府投资、民间投资与经济增长的关系,本文以新经济增长理论为理论依据,首先对政府投资、民间投资的概况及产业投向进行了详细的图表数据分析,之后又分别对东、中、西部三大经济带地区的投资状况与经济增长差异进行了图标数据分析,并在此基础上对产生差异的原因进行了深刻地讨论。之后,本文运用协整检验、Granger因果检验、VEC模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等一系列计量方法,从全国性、区域性两个角度进行深入的研究。首先对政府投资、民间投资与经济增长之间的关系进行全面考察。之后,再分别对东、中、西部三大经济带的政府投资、民间投资与对地区经济增长的差异进行计量分析。结果表明:(1)在短期内,民间投资对经济的拉动作用大于政府投资;从长期来看,政府投资对经济的促进作用大于民间投资。因此,刺激短期经济增长,需要充分调动民间投资;而对于长期经济的健康发展,仍需要政府长期有规划的投资。(2)三大经济带地区的政府投资、民间投资对经济增长的影响都存在一定差异。对于东部地区,政府投资对经济增长的贡献很小,而民间投资能有效带动经济增长。对于中部地区,政府投资与民间投资对其经济增长都有一定的促进作用,政府投资对经济增长的贡献率大于民间投资。对于西部地区,政府投资与民间投资对其经济增长都有一定的促进作用,民间投资对GDP的贡献率大于政府投资。最后,本文根据得出的结论提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Investment is an important means to promote China's economic growth, and for different regions, the impact of investment on economic growth is also different. Investment includes government investment, private investment and foreign investment, in which government investment and private investment occupy the dominant position of total investment in China, and their roles in economic growth are different. Therefore, under the premise of expanding domestic demand, how to optimize the investment structure, how to make the government investment and private investment develop in coordination, so as to promote the national economic growth more effectively is especially important in view of the current special situation of our country. In order to investigate the relationship between government investment, private investment and economic growth, this paper, based on the theory of new economic growth, firstly makes a detailed chart and data analysis of government investment, private investment and industrial investment. Then the paper analyzes the difference of investment and economic growth in the three economic zones of east, middle and west, and discusses the causes of the difference. Then, a series of econometric methods, such as cointegration test, Granger causality test, VEC model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, are used in this paper. First of all, the relationship between government investment, private investment and economic growth is investigated. After that, the paper analyzes the difference of government investment, private investment and regional economic growth in the three economic zones of east, middle and west respectively. The results show that: (1) in the short term, private investment plays a more important role in promoting economy than government investment, and in the long run, government investment plays a more important role in promoting economy than private investment. Therefore, to stimulate short-term economic growth, we need to fully mobilize private investment; For the healthy development of long-term economy, the government still needs long-term planned investment. (2) the influence of government investment and private investment on economic growth in the three major economic zones is different. For the eastern region, government investment contributes little to economic growth, while private investment can effectively drive economic growth. For the central region, both government investment and private investment promote their economic growth, and the contribution rate of government investment to economic growth is greater than that of private investment. For the western region, both government investment and private investment promote their economic growth, and the contribution rate of private investment to GDP is greater than that of government investment. Finally, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the conclusions.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F283;F124

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