中国城市化与产业结构优化升级互动研究

发布时间：2019-01-25 21:59

【摘要】：中国的城市化是在严重滞后于工业化的大背景下推进的,产业结构调整与城市化进程的互动关系,与较同步完成工业化与城市化的发达国家相比,会呈现出一些新的特点。文章基于1978-2012年的时间序列数据,利用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数的计量方法,研究了我国城市化与产业结构高级化及合理化之间的互动路径。实证研究发现:从长期影响方向来看,产业结构合理化和高级化演变在长期对城市化水平的提升均具有正向效应;从因果关系来看,产业结构高级化引致城市化,城市化带来产业结构合理化水平提升;从互动影响程度来看,与产业结构合理化与城市化的互动影响相比,产业结构高级化与城市化的互动影响要更显著。在此基础上,提出通过三次产业结构优化升级,巩固城市化发展的基础、扩大城市化发展的规模、提升城市化发展的质量的政策建议。
[Abstract]:China's urbanization is pushed forward under the background of serious lag behind industrialization. The interactive relationship between industrial structure adjustment and urbanization process will present some new characteristics compared with the developed countries which have completed industrialization and urbanization simultaneously. Based on the time series data from 1978 to 2012, this paper studies the interactive path between urbanization and the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure in China by using the VAR model and the measurement method of impulse response function. The empirical study shows that the rationalization and the evolution of industrial structure have positive effects on the improvement of urbanization level in the long run. From the point of view of causality, the advanced industrial structure leads to urbanization, and urbanization leads to the upgrading of the level of rationalization of industrial structure; Compared with the interaction between the rationalization of industrial structure and urbanization, the interaction between industrial structure and urbanization is more significant. On this basis, some policy suggestions are put forward to strengthen the basis of urbanization development, expand the scale of urbanization development and improve the quality of urbanization development through three industrial structure optimization and upgrading.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学经济学院;新疆师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(11CMZ006)
【分类号】：F121.3;F299.2

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