成都市城市土地利用结构及效益研究

发布时间：2019-07-03 18:30

【摘要】：本文以成都市作为研究对象，根据研究区的自身情况，收集整理了来自成都市统计局发布的成都市1999-2010年期间的土地利用类型、面积数据。此外根据成都市统计局发布的统计公报，收集成都市在这期间的经济社会发展数据，用正负功效法对数据进行标准化处理，消除单位和量纲对数据分析研究的影响。 1、运用已经成熟的土地结构分析法，通过土地单一结构分析（计算其各类土地面积比重变化趋势）、土地利用多样性（计算系统内部各类土地类型变化）、信息熵（计算系统内部有序与无序程度）、优势度、均衡度等方法，对成都市1999-2009年共计11年期间的土地类型、面积数据进行系统化的分析整合。 2、从整体的层面对成都市1999-2010年土地利用的综合效益进行评价，笔者在阅读整理了大量前人对于土地利用评价效益的基础上，以科学性、系统性和层次性、可操作性、综合性的原则，确立了涉及土地利用的经济、社会、生态效益三大指标，同时基于成熟的权重评价法，，采用层次分析法，运用模糊数学、隶属度模型，将主观评价与客观评价相结合，得出各指标权重，并用和法求出综合权重。 3、选用各种预测模型，通过四大指标预测成都市建成区面积未来变化方向，求出回归方程。为了实现数据具有互比价值，应用功效系数法，计算出土地利用的综合功效。 4、最后，选取协调度模型，对成都市12年间土地利用协调程度进行研究比较。通过应用相关方法、模型可以看出，成都市在2003-2009年建成区面积开始不断扩大，尤其是2002-2003年间增幅最大，2003-2007年增幅降缓。整体上而言成都市在这12年间建成区面积是在渐长。其中增幅较大的有建成区绿地、建成城区、公共设施用地以及工业用地面积，其增幅分别为240.58%、89.08%、74.91%、69.28%。而土地利用多样化值最大值出现在2003年，其多样化指数达到0.69852，其最小值出是2000年的0.6259，历年均值为0.6688。而从信息熵而言，成都市这一阶段土地分布较为不平衡渐进。单从整体而言，其最大差值为0.116，表明城市的整体发展是在从无序—有序—无序的一种发展模式。从土地利用综合效益而言，从1999-2000年出现局部下滑，但经过2000年这一拐点后，成都市土地利用效益呈现一种逐步上升的趋势，随时间推移，这种势头表现越加明现。从1999年0.2727增加到2010年0.8595，在原有基础上翻了3.15倍。成都市土地利用过程中，总体呈现一种协调发展的模式。其中除去2000年土地利用为良好协调发展以外，从1999-2010年均呈现优质协调发展，同时这也意味着成都市整体土地利用程度较高，生态环境优良、社会经济各方面发展均较快。再运用多项式模型预测未来成都市建设用地的发展方向，并得出回归方程。最后根据评价结果，对结果进行解释，提出优化建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, Chengdu is taken as the research object, according to the situation of the study area, the land use type and area data of Chengdu from 1999 to 2010 issued by Chengdu Bureau of Statistics are collected and sorted out. In addition, according to the statistical bulletin issued by Chengdu Bureau of Statistics, the economic and social development data of Chengdu during this period are collected, and the positive and negative effect method is used to standardize the data, so as to eliminate the influence of units and dimensions on data analysis and research. 1. Using the mature land structure analysis method, through the analysis of land single structure (to calculate the change trend of the proportion of all kinds of land area), the diversity of land use (to calculate the change of all kinds of land types within the system), the information entropy (to calculate the degree of order and disorder within the system), the degree of dominance, the degree of equilibrium, etc., this paper deals with the land types in Chengdu during the 11-year period from 1999 to 2009. The area data is systematically analyzed and integrated. 2. From the overall level, the author evaluates the comprehensive benefits of land use in Chengdu from 1999 to 2010. On the basis of reading and sorting out a large number of previous land use evaluation benefits, the author establishes three indicators of land use economic, social and ecological benefits with the principles of science, systematicness and hierarchy, maneuverability and comprehensiveness. At the same time, based on the mature weight evaluation method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is adopted. By using fuzzy mathematics and membership degree model, the subjective evaluation and objective evaluation are combined to obtain the weight of each index, and the sum method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight. 3. Using various prediction models, the future change direction of built-up area in Chengdu is predicted by four indexes, and the regression equation is obtained. In order to realize the mutual comparison value of the data, the comprehensive effect of land use is calculated by using the efficiency coefficient method. 4. Finally, the coordination degree model is selected to study and compare the degree of land use coordination in Chengdu in the past 12 years. Through the application of the relevant methods, it can be seen that the area of Chengdu began to expand from 2003 to 2009, especially from 2002 to 2003, and the growth rate decreased slowly from 2003 to 2007. On the whole, the area of Chengdu has been growing in the past 12 years. Among them, the areas of green space in built-up areas, urban areas, public facilities land and industrial land increased by 240.58%, 89.08%, 74.91% and 6928%, respectively. However, the maximum value of land use diversity appeared in 2003, and its diversification index reached 0.69852, the minimum value was 0.6259 in 2000, and the average value was 0.6688. As far as information entropy is concerned, the land distribution in Chengdu is uneven and gradual in this stage. As a whole, the maximum difference is 0.116, which indicates that the overall development of the city is a kind of development mode from disorder to order and disorder. As far as the comprehensive benefit of land use is concerned, there has been a local decline from 1999 to 2000, but after the inflection point of 2000, the land use benefit of Chengdu has shown a gradual upward trend, and with the passage of time, this momentum has become more and more obvious. It increased from 0.2727 in 1999 to 0.8595 in 2010, an increase of 3.15 times on the original basis. In the process of land use in Chengdu, there is a mode of coordinated development as a whole. In addition to the good coordinated development of land use in 2000, it has shown high quality and coordinated development from 1999 to 2010. At the same time, it also means that Chengdu has a high degree of land use, excellent ecological environment and rapid social and economic development. Then the multinomial model is used to predict the development direction of construction land in Chengdu in the future, and the regression equation is obtained. Finally, according to the evaluation results, the results are explained and the optimization suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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