欧元区政府债务危机及其对中国启示的研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 11:05

本文关键词： 欧元区政府债务财政规则独立财政委员会　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：美国次贷危机之后,资本借贷市场低迷,世界主要发达经济体的财政指标纷纷恶化。2009年希腊首当其冲,累积的财政赤字和庞大的政府债务规模导致资金链断裂,随后被世界三大信用评级机构相继下调政府债务评级。自此,欧元区政府债务危机全面爆发。对于欧洲主债危机的研究有助于及早防范和有效治理,具有重要意义。欧盟作为最重要的区域合作组织之一,在此次危机中暴露的问题对于亚太经合组织和东亚地区的货币合作也有重要的启示作用。站在长期视角下分析“欧猪五国”的财政运行状况,发现此次主权债务危机爆发的原因有以下几点。首先,2008年发生的金融海啸是导火索,诱使各国的财政赤字和债务规模急剧扩大。其次,世界发达经济体的平均政府债务水平正陷入长达数十年的增长周期中,这是宏观因素。第三,欧元区财政政策与货币政策的长期不匹配,是危机爆发的内在原因。第四,国际信用评级机构促成了欧洲主债危机。第五,高福利的政治体制和欧元的持续升值埋下隐患。历史上,财政规则一度成为各国防范债务违约的主要手段,但是并没有起到真正的约束作用。独立财政委员会是学术界探索的新方法,似乎能在很大程度上控制观经济运行斤.荷兰的经济政策分析局便是成功案例。中国改革开放以来保持了高速的经济增长,人民币国际化趋势日渐明显,但同时带来的升值问题会造成我国出口贸易收紧,冲淡政府偿债能力。我国持续多年的扩张性财政政策,以及地方财权事权不二致形成了巨大的地方隐形政府债务,增加了相当的财政风险。分析得出,欧债危机对开放经济条件下的中国有以下启示。第二,债务规模要适度,并建立完善的债务风险监管机制和预警机制；第二,要从根本上解决地方政府事权财权不一致的问题；’第三,优化升级财政支出结构；第四,保证财政政策与货币政策的协调配合；第五,要改变出口拉动型的经济增长方式,扩大内需,加快产业结构优化升级；第六,政府管理要改变单纯追求数字的政绩观。
[Abstract]:After the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the capital lending market was depressed, and the fiscal indicators of the world's major developed economies deteriorated one after another. In 2009, Greece was the first to bear the brunt. The accumulated fiscal deficit and the huge scale of government debt led to the breakage of the capital chain and were subsequently downgraded by the world's three major credit rating agencies. The euro zone government debt crisis broke out in an all-round way. The study on the main debt crisis in Europe is of great significance for early prevention and effective management. As one of the most important regional cooperation organizations, the European Union (EU) is one of the most important regional cooperation organizations. The problems exposed in the crisis also have important implications for the monetary cooperation between APEC and East Asia. From a long-term perspective, the financial performance of the "European Pig five" is analyzed. The reasons for this sovereign debt crisis are as follows: first, the financial tsunami on 2008 was the trigger, inducing countries' fiscal deficits and debt to expand sharply. The average level of government debt in the world's advanced economies is falling into a decades-long growth cycle, a macro factor. Third, the long-term mismatch between fiscal and monetary policy in the eurozone. In 4th, the international credit rating agencies contributed to Europe's main debt crisis. 5th, the high welfare political system and the continued appreciation of the euro. Fiscal rules once became the main means to prevent debt default, but they did not play a real role in binding. The Independent Fiscal Committee is a new method explored by academic circles. The Dutch Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis is a success story. China has maintained rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up, and the internationalization of the renminbi has become increasingly evident. But at the same time, the problem of appreciation will lead to the tightening of China's export trade and the weakening of the government's ability to repay debt. China's expansionary fiscal policy has been going on for many years. As well as the local financial rights and powers formed a huge local invisible government debt, increased considerable financial risk. The analysis shows that the European debt crisis has the following implications for China under the conditions of open economy. Second. The scale of debt should be moderate, and the supervision mechanism and early warning mechanism of debt risk should be established. Second, it is necessary to fundamentally solve the problem that the local government does not have the same financial power; Third, optimize and upgrade the structure of fiscal expenditure; 4th, to ensure the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies; In 5th, it is necessary to change the export-led mode of economic growth, expand domestic demand, and accelerate the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure; In 6th, government management should change the pure pursuit of digital view of achievement.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5;F815

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