黄金行业研究报告

发布时间：2018-02-21 19:09

本文关键词： 黄金行业研究报告　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：黄金由于其特殊的性质,本身就具有商品的货币的双重属性。作为商品,由于其外观精美,通常被人们用来作为珠宝饰品,又由于其独特的物理化学性质,常常被用于工业、医疗等高技术行业；作为货币,虽然历经全球金融体系的变革,但是黄金一直以来都是重要的储藏货币,它所具有的规避风险、维持金融稳定的特性是其他任何货币所不具备的。 2013年的黄金市场风云突变,黄金市场结束了连续12年牛市上涨的行情,金价下跌了30%之多,而黄金价格的变化和整个黄金行业的发展都是密不可分的。金价的下跌使得整个黄金行业都遭受到了沉重的打击,行业股价大幅度下跌,行业利润大幅度减少。所以我们有必要分别从黄金的商品属性和货币属性两方面进行出发,商品属性使黄金受到市场供求的影响,金融属性使黄金又受到宏观经济因素的影响,对整个黄金市场进行研究,利用黄金市场供求和宏观经济因素对黄金价格进行分析,从而对黄金市场走势以及黄金行业的未来前景进行预测。在黄金的储量上,世界已查明的黄金资源总量大约为8.9万吨,全世界总共有80多个国家生产黄金,其中南非、美国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、巴西等都是世界黄金的主要资源国；而在中国,山东省是我国黄金储量最为丰富的省份,接下来就是陕西、四川、甘肃等省份地区。从供求角度分析,全球黄金的供给大致可以分为三大方面：黄金的初级供应——矿产金,黄金的次级供应——再生金,黄金的三级供应——官方储备黄金的供应,全球黄金的需求主要包括首饰需求、工业技术需求、投资性需求以及央行购买需求等。2013年黄金价格大跌使得矿产金和再生金的供应都会降低,所以未来的黄金总供给会减少,ETF外流的减少将会增加投资性需求,印度政府对于黄金进口管制的放宽将会增加首饰需求,国际政治局势的不安定将会增加央行购买需求和投资性需求,所以未来的黄金总需求会增加。需求增加,供给减少,应该会推动黄金价格的上涨。从宏观经济因素的角度分析,日前俄罗斯出兵克里米亚造成的国际政治局势的紧张,全球经济回暖可能导致通胀的预期,ETF外流的减少以及个别经济体宽松的货币政策等都会支撑着黄金价格。作为中国黄金行业的最有影响力的公司之一,山东黄金矿业股份有限公司一直都是中国黄金行业的领军公司。通过分别分析山东黄金公司的基本概况、发展战略、运营能力、财务能力以及企业价值,我们判断出公司是一家具备投资价值的公司。综上分析,我们预测未来黄金价格将会上涨,而黄金价格的上扬将会推动黄金行业的发展,所以我们相信,未来的黄金行业将会朝着利好的方向发展,黄金行业具备投资价值。
[Abstract]:Because of its special nature, gold itself has the dual property of commodity currency. As a commodity, because of its exquisite appearance, it is usually used as jewelry, and because of its unique physical and chemical properties, it is often used in industry, High-tech industries such as health care; as a currency, despite changes in the global financial system, gold has always been an important reserve currency, with its risk aversion. The characteristic of maintaining financial stability is not possessed by any other currency. In 2013, when the gold market changed dramatically, the gold market ended a 12-year bull run, with gold prices falling by as much as 30%. And the changes in gold prices and the development of the entire gold industry are inseparable. The fall in gold prices has hit the entire gold industry hard, and the share price of the industry has fallen sharply. Therefore, it is necessary to proceed from the commodity and monetary attributes of gold, which make gold subject to the influence of supply and demand in the market, while the financial attribute makes gold subject to macroeconomic factors. This paper studies the whole gold market, analyzes the gold price by using the supply and demand of the gold market and the macroeconomic factors, and forecasts the trend of the gold market and the future prospects of the gold industry. In terms of gold reserves, the total amount of gold resources identified in the world is about 89,000 tons, and more than 80 countries in the world produce gold, of which South Africa, the United States, Russia, Australia and Brazil are the major resource countries of the world's gold. In China, Shandong Province is the richest province in gold reserves, followed by Shaanxi, Sichuan, Gansu and other provinces. From the point of view of supply and demand, the global supply of gold can be roughly divided into three main aspects: the primary supply of gold, the secondary supply of gold, the secondary supply of gold, the third supply of gold and the supply of official reserve gold. Global gold demand mainly includes jewellery demand, industrial technology demand, investment demand and central bank purchase demand. In 2013, gold prices plummeted and the supply of mineral and recycled gold will be reduced. So in the future, the total supply of gold will reduce the outflow of ETFs, which will increase the demand for investment. The relaxation of gold import controls by the Indian government will increase the demand for jewelry. Instability in international politics will increase central bank buying and investment demand, so aggregate demand for gold in the future will increase. Increased demand and reduced supply should drive up gold prices. From the point of view of macroeconomic factors, the international political situation caused by the Russian troops in Crimea before Japan was tense, A rebound in the global economy could lead to inflationary expectations and a decline in outflows of ETFs, as well as loose monetary policy in individual economies, all of which will support gold prices. As one of the most influential companies in China's gold industry, Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. has always been the leading company in China's gold industry. Financial ability and corporate value, we judge that the company is a company with investment value. According to the above analysis, we predict that gold prices will rise in the future, and that the rise in gold prices will promote the development of the gold industry. Therefore, we believe that the future gold industry will develop in a positive direction. The gold industry has investment value.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.8;F832.54

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