碳排放交易评价指标内联性及市场化博弈分析

发布时间：2018-04-16 03:11

本文选题：碳排放权交易 + 有效性评价　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国已设立多个碳排放权交易试点,但仍未形成统一有效的碳排放权交易评价指标体系,并且对体系中各指标的重要程度研究甚少。本文在国内及国际碳排放权交易发展现状的基础上,分析碳排放权交易体系的基本条件,从政策有效性、监管有效性、市场化程度和碳减排技术创新等方面构建目标层、准则层和指标层三维梯度的指标体系框架,并利用网络分析法(ANP)对各层指标的内联性进行重要程度分析。研究结果表明:(1)政策有效性、监管有效性、市场化程度及碳减排技术创新的权重分别为0.34、0.25、0.24和0.17;(2)通过问卷调查发现各指标层间的指标均具有一定的关联性,即:各子指标相互影响,如:“监管有效性”准则下执法力度、公众低碳意识、碳排放信息公示的权重分别为:0.56308、0.11178和0.32514,表明三种子指标对准则层指标的贡献值,同时,各子指标的影响程度顺序为:执法力度碳排放信息公示公众低碳意识;除此以外,执法力度、碳排放信息公示、公众低碳意识三者对政策有效性下的公开宣传指标的贡献分别为为0.69552、0.22905和0.07543;(3)由计算得出的各指标的全局权重可知,执法力度、“CO2产品价格”、碳排放信息公示三者的权重排在前三位,分别为:0.250154、0.212727和0.144447,表明在碳排放权交易体系建立中做好这三方面的工作将获得明显的效果。(4)采用ANP法构建指标间关联的网络状指标体系,改进了传统的指标间独立的评价模型,使评价模型能适应实际系统的复杂性。碳排放权交易市场的建立有利于电力行业碳减排,通过市场化博弈分析验证碳排放权交易有利于我国“CO2产品”的流通。本文分析区域发电侧CO2排放量、CO2处理技术成本、各电厂的目标发电量等不确定信息,结合区间参数规划(IPP)和两阶段随机规划(TSP)方法,分别在是否存在碳排放权交易情景下,以区域发电侧净收益为目标,构建区域发电侧环境-经济协同发展模型,研究结果表明:(1)在不同的区域碳减排目标下,碳交易模式下的净收益高于非交易模式下收益,验证了碳排放权交易有利于区域碳减排目标下环境-经济协同发展;(2)碳排放权交易有利于企业科学制定碳减排方案,合理选择碳减排技术,挖掘企业的碳减排潜力;(3)通过模型的计算结果得到企业碳交易量,有助于决策者制定系统性的碳排放权配额分配方案,增加“CO2产品”的流通性,健全碳排放配额管理制度。通过对碳排放权交易体系评价指标内联性的研究,为科学有效的碳排放权交易体系的建立提供一定的理论参考;构建不同情境下区域发电侧经济-环境协同发展模型,为决策者分配碳排放权、企业合理选择碳减排技术提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:China has set up a number of carbon emissions trading pilot, but has not yet formed a unified and effective evaluation index system of carbon emissions trading, and study the important degree of each index system yet. Based the current development status in domestic and international carbon emissions trading, the basic conditions of carbon emissions trading system, from the effectiveness of the policies, the effectiveness of supervision, the degree of marketization and the carbon emission reduction technology innovation and other aspects of building the target layer, rule layer and index layer 3D gradient index system framework, and using the network analysis method (ANP) for analysis of the importance of inline index. The results show: (1) policy effectiveness the weight, supervision effectiveness, innovation degree of marketization and carbon emission reduction technology of 0.34,0.25,0.24 and 0.17 respectively; (2) through the questionnaire survey found that each index layer index had a certain relevance, namely: sub indicators. Mutual influence, such as: "effective supervision" under the rule of law enforcement, public awareness of low carbon, carbon emissions information publicity weights were 0.56308,0.11178 and 0.32514, showed that the contribution of three seed index on the criterion layer index value, at the same time, the sub index of the order of influence degree: Law enforcement information publicity public low carbon emissions carbon consciousness; in addition, law enforcement, carbon emissions information publicity, public awareness of low-carbon three to the effectiveness of the policy under the publicity contribution index were 0.69552,0.22905 and 0.07543 respectively; (3) the global weights of the indexes calculated by the law enforcement, "CO2 price", the weight of carbon the emission of the three information publicity in the top three, respectively 0.250154,0.212727 and 0.144447, showed that in the carbon emissions trading system to establish do these three work will get obvious effect. (4) using the ANP method to construct a The index system of network standard association, improve the traditional independent index evaluation model, the evaluation model can adapt to the complexity of the systems. The establishment of carbon emissions trading market for carbon emission reduction in electric power industry, through the market game analysis and verification of carbon emissions trading is conducive to China's "CO2" the analysis of regional circulation. The generation side CO2 emissions technology, the cost of CO2 treatment, the goal of the power plant generating capacity and uncertain information, combining the interval parameter programming (IPP) and two stage stochastic programming (TSP) method, respectively, in the presence of carbon emissions trading scenario, with regional power generation side of net income for the target, the construction of regional power generation side environment and economy coordinated development model, the results show that: (1) in the regional carbon emission reduction targets under different net carbon trading mode is higher than the transaction proceeds, verification of carbon emissions trading Is conducive to the regional carbon emission reduction targets under the environment and economy coordinated development; (2) is conducive to the scientific enterprise to develop carbon emission reduction of carbon emissions trading scheme, reasonable selection of carbon emission reduction technology, carbon emission reduction potential mining enterprises; (3) corporate carbon trading volume through the calculation result of the model, help decision makers to develop a system of the carbon emissions quota allocation scheme, increase the liquidity of CO2 products, improve carbon emissions quota management system. Through the research on the evaluation index of the inline carbon emissions trading system, to provide some theoretical reference for the establishment of a scientific and effective carbon emissions trading system; construction of regional economy under the different situations of generation side - environment coordinated development model for decision makers, allocation of carbon emissions, and provide scientific basis for the selection of enterprise carbon emission reduction technology is reasonable.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F832.5;F224.32

【参考文献】