中国利率市场化与人民币发行方式

发布时间：2018-05-31 06:03

本文选题：利率市场化 + 一般均衡　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：到目前为止，我国利率市场化的基本点还在于择时逐步放开利率管制，实现利率的随行就市。这样做固然非常重要，但还远远不够，因为市场化利率归根到底是由货币供求所决定。如果不能理顺有关货币供求的变量，放开管制也未必能使利率波动在期望的位置上，更不要说，央行没有替代的宏观调控抓手，放开的利率还会回到行政管制的轨道上，，所以利率市场化改革一定要改变人民币发行方式，从央行买外汇转移到买国债上来，货币的供给和需求才能归于国际惯例的轨道，形成一般均衡的稳定利率，央行通过买卖国债的公开市场操作就能直接地影响到基准利率，通过基准利率调控利率水平。美国和台湾地区的利率自由化改革都是走法案先行、谨慎推进的路线，原因在于他们的利率改革站在不同的起点，其中最重要的是他们利率市场化改革的起点与平台与我们不同。他们买入国债或者央行存单的货币发行方式，这就能在解除利率管制之后，央行货币供给的变动能够直接影响到基准利率。我国利率市场化缺失这样的前提条件，也就是人民币供给量的变动与利率之间没有直接必然的联系，市场无法进行充分自主的套利，各市场之间无法形成一般均衡利利差，基准利率不能带动利率水平变化，放开管制之后，一旦遭遇外来冲击，市场利率就可能上蹿下跳，如果没有替代行政管制的调控抓手，我们非常可能因为利率失控而付出沉重的经济代价，或者为稳定经济又不得不回到行政管制的轨道中去，从而丧失利率市场化改革的成果。所以中国利率市场化改革，既要放开有关管制，更要构建市场可以充分自主套利，央行可以有效调控基准利率的平台，也就是改变人民币的发行方式，从买入外汇逐步转轨至买入国债，矫正货币供求的异常，使利率系统形成一般均衡。本文从瓦尔拉斯一般均衡说起，说明充分自主的套利机制对于形成均衡利差的重要意义，然后才有货币供给量通过基准利率影响整个利率系统的传导机制，明确利率市场化的前提和保障就在于建立这样的利率传导机制。进而对比美国与台湾地区的经验，证明买外汇发人民币无法形成一般均衡的市场利差，这就可能阻碍我国利率市场化改革的深化。笔者期望这样的研究能够丰富和充实中国利率市场化改革的思路。
[Abstract]:Up to now, the basic point of interest rate marketization in our country is to liberalize the interest rate control step by step and realize the interest rate in the market. This is important, but not enough, because market-based interest rates are determined by money supply and demand in the final analysis. If the variables related to the supply and demand of money cannot be straightened out, deregulation may not necessarily lead to the fluctuation of interest rates in the desired position, not to mention that the central bank does not have a substitute macro-control grip, and the liberalized interest rate will return to the track of administrative control. Therefore, the reform of interest rate marketization must change the way the RMB is issued, from the purchase of foreign exchange by the central bank to the purchase of treasury bonds, so that the supply and demand of money can return to the track of international practice and form a generally balanced and stable interest rate. The central bank can directly affect the benchmark interest rate through the open market operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, and regulate the level of interest rate through the benchmark interest rate. Both the interest rate liberalization reform in the United States and Taiwan has followed the first line of the bill and pushed forward cautiously, because their interest rate reform stands at a different starting point. One of the most important is that their interest rate marketization reform of the starting point and platform is different from us. They buy bonds or the way central bank certificates of deposit are issued so that changes in the central bank's money supply can have a direct impact on benchmark interest rates once interest rates are lifted. The lack of marketization of interest rate in our country is the premise that there is no direct and inevitable connection between the change of RMB supply and interest rate, the market cannot carry out fully autonomous arbitrage, and the general equilibrium interest rate difference can not be formed between the markets. The benchmark interest rate cannot bring about changes in the level of interest rates. After deregulation, once the market interest rates are subject to external shocks, market interest rates may jump and fall. If there is no substitute for the regulation and control of administrative control, It is very likely that we will pay a heavy economic price because the interest rate is out of control, or we will have to return to the track of administrative control in order to stabilize the economy, thus losing the achievement of interest rate marketization reform. Therefore, in China's interest rate marketization reform, we should not only liberalize relevant controls, but also build a platform where the market can fully arbitrage with its own interests, and the central bank can effectively regulate and control the benchmark interest rate, that is, to change the way the RMB is issued. From buying foreign exchange to buying national debt, the anomaly of money supply and demand is corrected, and the interest rate system is in general equilibrium. Starting from the general equilibrium of Valas, this paper explains the importance of a fully autonomous arbitrage mechanism for the formation of equilibrium interest difference, and then there is a monetary supply that affects the transmission mechanism of the whole interest rate system through the benchmark interest rate. The premise and guarantee of interest rate marketization is to establish such an interest rate transmission mechanism. Compared with the experience of the United States and Taiwan, it is proved that buying foreign exchange and issuing RMB can not form a general equilibrium market interest rate difference, which may hinder the deepening of China's interest rate marketization reform. I hope this research can enrich and enrich the thinking of China's interest rate marketization reform.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.5;F822.2

【参考文献】