建设项目的资金风险及对项目进度计划的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-15 14:31

本文关键词：建设项目的资金风险及对项目进度计划的影响分析　出处：《青岛大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在当前动荡的国内外经济环境中,建设项目的资金风险愈发突出,并呈现更多的动态性和不确定性。同时,资金风险的发生也很大程度上影响着项目进度。因此,对于建设项目,资金风险的准确预测和评估对于整个项目的按进度计划完成至关重要。本文的研究目的是针对建设项目资金风险影响因素进行定量分析,并估算资金风险对项目进度计划的影响程度。其主要研究工作体现在以下三个方面：通过文献研究和问卷调查相结合的方法,明确建设项目资金风险影响因素的来源,得出资金风险的7种主要影响因素,包括：工程进度款支付不及时、工程进度款支付比例较小、工程尾款支付不及时、国家宏观调控政策的出台、不可抗力的自然灾害、因工程质量达不到要求导致返工、施工单位在投标中低价承包工程。通过理论建模方法,构建建设项目资金和进度贝叶斯网络,估算资金风险发生的概率以及资金风险对项目进度的影响程度。结果表明,在不采取风险规避等措施的情况下,资金风险发生的概率是较大的；在资金风险的影响下,建设项目按计划工期完工的概率较低,这也是目前很多建设项目不能期完成的重要原因。通过实例研究方法,使用贝叶斯网络应用软件—-Hugin Lite软件,应用江苏省某机场配餐楼建设为案例,说明贝叶斯网络建模方法在建设项目资金和进度风险管理中实际应用过程,验证贝叶斯网络在预测资金风险发生概率与解决项目进度不确定性上的有效性。本文的研究成果对资金和进度风险的理论研究提供了全新的思路,并且对于有效规避资金风险以及合理控制资金风险对进度计划的影响都具有实际价值。同时,贝叶斯网络建模方法的引进,也为不确定因素越来越多的建设项目资金和进度风险管理提供一种高效的方法。
[Abstract]:In the current volatile economic environment at home and abroad, the capital construction project risk is more and more prominent, and has more dynamic and uncertainty. At the same time, the occurrence of financial risk also has great influence on the progress of the project. Therefore, for the construction project, risk measurement and accurate pre assessment for the entire project on schedule finish is very important. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively analyze the factors of construction project finance risk influence, and estimate the influence degree of financial risk on the project schedule. The main research work embodied in the following three aspects:
Methods through literature study and questionnaire investigation, clear construction factors affect the project risk sources of funds, including 7 main factors, the financial risk: the progress of the payment is not timely, the progress of the payment proportion of Engineering balance payment is not timely, the national macro-control policies, the force majeure natural disasters, due to the quality of the project is not up to the requirements lead to rework, the construction units in the tender price contract project.
Through theoretical modeling method, the construction project funds and the progress of the Bayesian network, estimates the probability of occurrence of financial risk and financial risk impact on the progress of the project. The results show that without taking risk avoidance measures, the probability of capital risk is larger; impact on capital risk, the probability of the construction project according to the the completion of the planned construction period is relatively low, which is also an important reason for many construction projects can not be completed.
Through the case study method, using Bayesian network application software -Hugin Lite software, application of the airport catering building in Jiangsu province for example, illustrate the Bayesian network modeling method in the practical application process of risk management of construction project funds and the progress in validation of Bayesian network in forecasting the capital risk probability and effectiveness of solving the uncertainty on the project schedule.
Provides a new idea to theoretical research funding and progress risk research results of this paper, and has practical value for the effective avoid financial risks and risk control of funds on schedule reasonable. At the same time, the introduction of Bayesian network modeling method, but also for the uncertainty of capital construction projects and project schedule risk management factors provide more and more a high efficient method.

【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F562.3;F560.68

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