引入EVA的上市钢铁公司财务风险预警实证研究
发布时间：2018-10-21 20:24
【摘要】：钢铁业是关系我国国计民生的支柱产业，在国民经济中占有重要地位。作为一个原材料的生产和加工环节，钢铁业处于工业产业链的中间位置，它的发展与国家的基础建设以及工业发展的水平密切关联。然而也是由于这些相关行业及国内外环境政策的变化，，如产能过剩、矿石垄断、资金紧张、需求不足、环境保护等方面的压力，使我国钢铁企业的财务风险加剧，生产经营面临异常严峻的处境。在这一背景下，我国上市钢铁公司财务风险预警引入EVA具有重要的现实意义。EVA评价体系涵盖了绩效评估、预算管理、经营管理、激励制度等多方面的价值管理理论，尤其是股权资本成本的引入，让经营者更接近于股东的环境，引导管理者甚至企业的一般员工开始像企业的股东一样思考企业的生存与发展。因此本文将EVA引入上市钢铁公司财务风险预警中，以增强预警模型的准确性，促进钢铁企业的健康发展。 本文选取2012年符合条件的30家上市钢铁公司为样本，从偿债能力、营运能力、现金流量、发展能力四大方面选取14个传统财务指标，此外用EVA对传统盈利能力进行修正，选取4个修正的盈利能力指标，共同构成上市钢铁公司财务风险预警指标体系，利用因子分析法对所选财务指标进行筛选，提取6个公共因子；其次运用聚类分析法对样本公司进行分类，将30家样本钢铁公司分为安全型和风险型两类；再次利用Logistic回归分析法对提取的公共因子建立模型，最终进入模型的公共因子是EVA因子和成长因子，通过验证可知EVA因子能够更好地提高模型的预测准确性；最后利用样本公司2011年和2010年的数据对模型进行检验，并对上市钢铁公司财务风险防控提出建设性意见。
[Abstract]:Steel industry is a pillar industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and plays an important role in the national economy. As a raw material production and processing link, the steel industry is in the middle of the industrial chain. Its development is closely related to the national infrastructure and the level of industrial development. However, it is also due to the changes in environmental policies in these related industries and at home and abroad, such as overcapacity, ore monopoly, tight capital, insufficient demand, environmental protection, and so on, which aggravate the financial risks of Chinese iron and steel enterprises. Production and operation are faced with an exceptionally severe situation. Under this background, the introduction of EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies in China has important practical significance. The EVA evaluation system covers the value management theory of performance evaluation, budget management, incentive system and so on. Especially the introduction of the cost of equity capital makes managers more close to the environment of shareholders and leads managers and even the general staff of enterprises to start thinking about the existence and development of enterprises just like shareholders of enterprises. In order to enhance the accuracy of the warning model and promote the healthy development of iron and steel enterprises, this paper introduces EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies. This paper selects 30 listed steel companies that meet the requirements in 2012 as samples, selects 14 traditional financial indicators from four aspects of solvency, operating capacity, cash flow and development ability, and modifies traditional profitability with EVA. Four revised profitability indexes are selected to constitute the financial risk warning index system of listed iron and steel companies. The selected financial indicators are screened by factor analysis and 6 public factors are extracted. Secondly, the sample companies are classified by cluster analysis, and 30 sample steel companies are classified into two categories: safety type and risk type. Then, the model of public factors extracted is established by Logistic regression analysis. The common factors that eventually enter the model are EVA factor and growth factor. It is known that EVA factor can better improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Finally, the model is tested using the data of sample companies in 2011 and 2010. And the listed steel company financial risk prevention and control put forward constructive suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.31;F406.7
本文编号：2286267
[Abstract]:Steel industry is a pillar industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and plays an important role in the national economy. As a raw material production and processing link, the steel industry is in the middle of the industrial chain. Its development is closely related to the national infrastructure and the level of industrial development. However, it is also due to the changes in environmental policies in these related industries and at home and abroad, such as overcapacity, ore monopoly, tight capital, insufficient demand, environmental protection, and so on, which aggravate the financial risks of Chinese iron and steel enterprises. Production and operation are faced with an exceptionally severe situation. Under this background, the introduction of EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies in China has important practical significance. The EVA evaluation system covers the value management theory of performance evaluation, budget management, incentive system and so on. Especially the introduction of the cost of equity capital makes managers more close to the environment of shareholders and leads managers and even the general staff of enterprises to start thinking about the existence and development of enterprises just like shareholders of enterprises. In order to enhance the accuracy of the warning model and promote the healthy development of iron and steel enterprises, this paper introduces EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies. This paper selects 30 listed steel companies that meet the requirements in 2012 as samples, selects 14 traditional financial indicators from four aspects of solvency, operating capacity, cash flow and development ability, and modifies traditional profitability with EVA. Four revised profitability indexes are selected to constitute the financial risk warning index system of listed iron and steel companies. The selected financial indicators are screened by factor analysis and 6 public factors are extracted. Secondly, the sample companies are classified by cluster analysis, and 30 sample steel companies are classified into two categories: safety type and risk type. Then, the model of public factors extracted is established by Logistic regression analysis. The common factors that eventually enter the model are EVA factor and growth factor. It is known that EVA factor can better improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Finally, the model is tested using the data of sample companies in 2011 and 2010. And the listed steel company financial risk prevention and control put forward constructive suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.31;F406.7
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前8条
1 李小兰 ,徐志莲 ,李朝荣;引入EVA指标后的财务预警实证研究[J];财会月刊;2004年12期
2 孙铮;吴茜;;中国EVA研究现状之评析[J];财务与会计;2002年12期
3 张小宁;公司价值判断——EVA分解及主成分分析[J];中国工业经济;2004年08期
4 韩镔;;经济增加值(EVA)的概念、应用和深入分析[J];国际石油经济;2010年02期
5 夏志超;;我国钢铁行业并购财务风险问题研究[J];消费导刊;2010年02期
6 陆桂贤;;我国上市公司并购绩效的实证研究——基于EVA模型[J];审计与经济研究;2012年02期
7 严复海;商慧;;财务危机预警中的审计意见信息含量研究[J];商业时代;2009年13期
8 秦小丽;田高良;;基于灰色理论和神经网络的公司财务预警模型[J];统计与决策;2011年16期
本文编号：2286267
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/kuaiji/2286267.html
