现金流折现分析在新项目决策中的应用
发布时间：2019-05-06 06:01
【摘要】：本文结合约翰迪尔公司的3E产品升级项目，探讨现金流折现法在决策中的应用。 约翰迪尔是世界最大的农业机械设备制造商，目前在中国拥有包括3个拖拉机生产厂。3E系列拖拉机是约翰迪尔天津工厂的主要产品之一。在我国准备推行非道路车辆发动机国三排放的背景下，迪尔公司确定了3E产品国三升级的项目。在项目收益分析之初，发现项目预估的收益太低，而且净现值为负。随后通过分析和调整产品成本，构建价格和销售量的调整模型，以及分析和优化投资方案，最终使得项目的收益率满足公司要求，净现值彻底改观。 第一章介绍了我国农业机械行业的现状、迪尔公司的背景信息，以及论文研究的参考价值等。 第二章阐述了现金流折现分析方法的定义和原理，以及在我国企业应用中的常见问题。 第三章详细描述了3E项目的背景信息，第一次DCF计算的结果。然后针对产品规划，设计方案的对比，，成本降低的目标等作分析，以实现优化成本的目的。构建了销售量/价格和收益调整的模型，优化了产品的价格和销售结构。通过方案对比，确定了风险较低的项目投资方案。最后用公司的DCF系统重新计算内部收益率和净现值，最终满足公司要求。 第四章总结项目分析过程中的主要工具和思路，同时汇总了项目中所学习到的经验教训。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the application of cash flow discount method in decision-making based on John Deer's 3e product upgrade project. John Deere is the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery and equipment, and currently has three tractor factories in China. The 3e series tractors are one of the main products of John Deere's Tianjin factory. Under the background that our country is ready to carry out the three emissions of non-road vehicle engine country, Deer Company has determined the project of 3e product country three upgrades. At the beginning of the project income analysis, it was found that the estimated project income was too low, and the net present value (NPV) was negative. Then, through the analysis and adjustment of product cost, the construction of price and sales adjustment model, as well as the analysis and optimization of investment scheme, finally make the return of the project to meet the requirements of the company, the net present value completely improved. The first chapter introduces the present situation of agricultural machinery industry in China, the background information of Deer Company, and the reference value of this paper. In the second chapter, the definition and principle of discounted cash flow analysis method are described, and the common problems in the application of cash flow discount analysis method in Chinese enterprises are also discussed. In chapter 3, the background information of 3e project and the results of the first DCF calculation are described in detail. Then the product planning, the comparison of the design scheme, the goal of cost reduction are analyzed in order to achieve the purpose of optimizing the cost. The model of volume / price and income adjustment is constructed, and the price and sales structure of the product are optimized. Through the scheme comparison, the project investment scheme with low risk is determined. Finally, the internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) are recalculated with the company's DCF system. The fourth chapter summarizes the main tools and ideas in the process of project analysis, and summarizes the lessons learned in the project.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F416.4;F406.7
本文编号：2469940
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the application of cash flow discount method in decision-making based on John Deer's 3e product upgrade project. John Deere is the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery and equipment, and currently has three tractor factories in China. The 3e series tractors are one of the main products of John Deere's Tianjin factory. Under the background that our country is ready to carry out the three emissions of non-road vehicle engine country, Deer Company has determined the project of 3e product country three upgrades. At the beginning of the project income analysis, it was found that the estimated project income was too low, and the net present value (NPV) was negative. Then, through the analysis and adjustment of product cost, the construction of price and sales adjustment model, as well as the analysis and optimization of investment scheme, finally make the return of the project to meet the requirements of the company, the net present value completely improved. The first chapter introduces the present situation of agricultural machinery industry in China, the background information of Deer Company, and the reference value of this paper. In the second chapter, the definition and principle of discounted cash flow analysis method are described, and the common problems in the application of cash flow discount analysis method in Chinese enterprises are also discussed. In chapter 3, the background information of 3e project and the results of the first DCF calculation are described in detail. Then the product planning, the comparison of the design scheme, the goal of cost reduction are analyzed in order to achieve the purpose of optimizing the cost. The model of volume / price and income adjustment is constructed, and the price and sales structure of the product are optimized. Through the scheme comparison, the project investment scheme with low risk is determined. Finally, the internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) are recalculated with the company's DCF system. The fourth chapter summarizes the main tools and ideas in the process of project analysis, and summarizes the lessons learned in the project.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F416.4;F406.7
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