四川省生猪价格调控及预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 09:27

本文关键词： 生猪预期理论灰色系统理论价格调控价格预测　出处：《四川农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：受传统消费习惯影响,猪肉在我国居民肉食消费结构中占据很大比例(约为66%)。因此,猪肉是关系国计民生的重要食品,生猪生产历来受到特殊重视。然而由于受自然因素或人为因素的影响,近年来生猪价格出现周期性的波动,并导致生猪产业出现生产波动和利润波动,严重影响整个社会的生产活动、生活活动,对国民经济的健康运行产生了一定的负面影响。价格调控预期是生猪生产者做出生产决策的重要依据,决定着未来生猪市场的供给量。因此,从生猪生产者的角度研究生猪价格调控预期对稳定生猪价格起着举足轻重的作用。高精度的生猪价格预测模型可以对未来生猪价格作出准确的预测,进而正确地引导生产,并且可以规避生猪生产的大起大落,稳定生猪市场的长期均衡供给量,确保生猪产业健康发展。本文通过分析四川省生猪价格的统计数据以及四川省获国家级生猪调出大县的分布,从宏观层面上掌握了四川省生猪产业的情况。通过实地调研获取的第一手数据分析四川省生猪生产者的基本情况,从微观上认清四川省生猪生产者的行为特征。基于预期理论、行为经济学理论以及实地调研情况,为规模化养殖场、散养户、专业户的生猪价格预期方式分别构建了理性预期模型、适应性预期模型、准理性预期模型。选取不同的生猪供给调整系数Φ,对这3类模型进行仿真模拟,得到2014-2020年四川省生猪价格运行趋势图。在此基础上本文建立了基于弱化缓冲算子的GM(1,1)预测模型,并通过对模型的合理性和精度进行误差检验,最后预测了四川省未来3年的生猪价格。本文的主要研究结论：(1)四川省生猪产业正在蓬勃发展,国家级生猪调出大县的数量逐年增加。(2)未来四川省的生猪产业将向着规模化的方向发展,规模化养殖将会成为最主要的生猪生产方式。(3)通过生猪价格调控预期仿真模拟,发现规模化养殖场的理性预期对政策信息要比专业户的准理性预期和散养户的适应性预期的敏感度高,政策效果的滞后期的专业和散养户的滞后期短。(4)灰色系统理论GM(1,1)具有较高的精度,适用于生猪价格预测,预测2014、2015和2016年生猪价格分别为16.72、15.26和17.42元/kg。未来生猪价格将在波动中上涨。本文的主要对策建议：(1)建立并逐步完善生猪期货市场,为生猪生产者的生产决策提供正确的引导；(2)建立健全生猪价格预警机制,提高生猪市场风险防范能力；(3)注重生猪产业政策的一致性与连续性,树立生猪生产者的生产信心。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of traditional consumption habits, pork occupies a large proportion (about 66%) in the consumption structure of meat consumption of Chinese residents. Therefore, pork is an important food related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Pig production has always received special attention. However, due to the influence of natural or human factors, hog prices fluctuate periodically in recent years, and lead to production fluctuations and profit fluctuations in pig industry. It has a negative impact on the healthy operation of the national economy. The expectation of price regulation is an important basis for pig producers to make production decisions. Determine the future supply of live pigs. From the point of view of pig producer, the regulation and control of pig price plays an important role in stabilizing the price of live pig. High precision prediction model of live pig price can accurately predict the price of live pig in the future. And then guide production correctly, and can avoid the big ups and downs of pig production, and stabilize the long-term balanced supply of live pig market. To ensure the healthy development of pig industry. This paper analyzed the statistical data of pig prices in Sichuan province and the distribution of the national pig transfer out of the big county in Sichuan province. From the macro level, we have grasped the situation of Sichuan pig industry, and analyzed the basic situation of Sichuan live pig producers through the first-hand data obtained through field research. Based on the expectation theory, behavioral economics theory and field investigation, we can find out the behavior characteristics of live pig producers in Sichuan province from the microcosmic point of view. Rational expectation model, adaptive expectation model and quasi-rational expectation model are constructed respectively. Different pig supply adjustment coefficients 桅 are selected to simulate these three models. The running trend map of live pig price in Sichuan Province from 2014-2020 is obtained. Based on this, the GM1 / 1) prediction model based on weakening buffer operator is established in this paper. Finally, the price of live pigs in Sichuan Province in the next three years is predicted. The main conclusion of this paper is that the pig industry in Sichuan Province is booming. The number of national pig out of the big county increased year by year. 2) in the future, the pig industry in Sichuan will develop towards the direction of scale. Large-scale breeding will become the most important mode of production of live pigs. It is found that rational expectations of large-scale farms are more sensitive to policy information than quasi-rational expectations of professional households and adaptive expectations of individual farmers. The effect of the policy on the lag period of professional and scattered households is short. Q4) the grey system theory GM1 / 1) has a higher accuracy and is suitable for the prediction of live pig prices in 2014. The price of live pigs in 2015 and 2016 was 16.72, respectively. 15.26 and 17.42 yuan / kg. The future hog price will rise in the fluctuation. The main countermeasure suggestion of this paper is to establish and gradually perfect the live pig futures market. To provide correct guidance for the production decision of pig producers; (2) establishing and perfecting the early warning mechanism of live pig price and improving the ability of preventing the market risk of live pig; Pay attention to the consistency and continuity of pig industry policy and build up the production confidence of pig producers.
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.7

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