退耕还林生态补偿标准、农户行为选择及损益

发布时间：2018-04-11 11:30

本文选题：生态补偿 + 退耕还林　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年05期

【摘要】：合理的补偿标准是激励农户自愿参与退耕还林工程的关键,而现有退耕还林补偿标准的测算方式没有考虑农户机会成本和损益状况的动态变化和不确定性,激励机制有待完善。文章将实物期权理论引入农户收益测算中,通过数值模拟探讨南北不同地区收益不确定条件下成本收益等额补偿的转换边界,结果表明农户退耕的机会成本随时间和地域变动而变动,科学高效的退耕补偿标准也应随之变动。随后,根据2002-2013年相关统计数据以小麦和稻谷为代表估算南北不同地区退耕地块上退耕农户的机会成本,结合相关政策规定的初值密度和生态林认定标准以杉木和刺槐为代表估算南北不同地区造林成本,进而得到退耕还林的造林净收益,通过比较历年种植农作物和造林的净收益,表明种植农作物的净收益呈现波动上升的状态,2002-2009年期间的退耕还林净收益高于种植农作物的净收益,农户因退耕受益,2010-2013年期间的退耕还林净收益低于种植农作物的净收益,农户因退耕受损。最后,利用几何布朗运动模拟2014-2030年的退耕机会成本的可能走势并与转换边界进行比较,得到粮食产量、补偿标准与农户受损概率之间的关系,结果表明,新一轮退耕还林政策下退耕农户的受损概率随农作物产量的增加而增加,随补偿标准的增加而减小,在相同立地条件和相同补偿标准下南方地区退耕农户受损的概率更大。文章为新一轮退耕还林政策的有效实施提供了理论依据,其政策含义是在中央政府"一刀切"政策现状下,地方政府应结合地域特征和机会成本的变化制定退耕还林补偿标准,在选择退耕地块时应考虑地块的立地条件,避免宜耕地被退。
[Abstract]:The reasonable compensation standard is the key to encourage farmers to participate voluntarily in the project of returning cropland to forestry. However, the calculation method of compensation standard for returning cropland to forest does not take into account the dynamic changes and uncertainties of the opportunity cost and profit and loss of farmers, and the incentive mechanism needs to be improved.In this paper, the real option theory is introduced into the calculation of farmers' income, and the conversion boundary of equal compensation of cost and income under the condition of uncertain income in different regions of north and south is discussed by numerical simulation.The results show that the opportunity cost of returning farmland changes with time and region, and the scientific and efficient compensation standard should also change.Subsequently, based on the relevant statistics for 2002-2013, using wheat and rice as the representative, the opportunity cost of returning farmers on land plots in different regions of the North and the South was estimated.The results show that the net income of planting crops is increasing in the period of 2002-2009, the net income of returning farmland to forest is higher than that of planting crops, and the net income of returning farmland to forest in the period of 2010-2013 is lower than that of planting crops, and the net income of returning farmland to forest is lower than that of planting crops in the period of 2002-2009.Farmers are damaged by the return of farmland.Finally, using geometric Brownian motion to simulate the possible trend of opportunity cost of returning farmland from 2014-2030 and compare it with the transition boundary, the relationship between grain yield, compensation standard and the probability of farmer's damage is obtained.Under the new policy of returning cropland to forest, the probability of damage to farmers increased with the increase of crop yield and decreased with the increase of compensation standard, and the probability of damage to farmers in southern China was greater under the same site conditions and the same compensation standard.This paper provides a theoretical basis for the effective implementation of the new round of policy of returning cropland to forest. The policy implication is that under the present situation of "one-size-fits-all" policy of the central government, local governments should formulate compensation standards for returning farmland to forests according to the changes of regional characteristics and opportunity costs.The site conditions should be taken into account in the selection of plots to avoid the retreat of arable land.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目“完善生态补偿机制研究”(编号:12&ZD072)
【分类号】：F326.2

【参考文献】