发电集团电煤供应链协同一体化理论与方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 06:51

本文选题：电煤供应链 + 协同　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：发电集团的电煤供应链长期以来存在诸多矛盾,最突出的是煤电价格之争和运力不足两点。这些矛盾为电煤供应链的协同一体化发展带来了不利的影响。自2012年下半年以来,电煤价格持续下降,国家发改委也正式于2013年实施电煤并轨制度,电煤供应链的协同一体化发展出现了新的契机。另外,2014年初发布的国家煤炭物流规划和铁路运价调整等政策,也进一步说明了国家对煤炭供应链的重视,对电煤供应链协同一体化发展的相关问题进行深入研究非常有必要。本文的主要研究目标是通过对发电集团电煤供应链协同一体化中的若干关键问题进行深入研究,得到一些有效的理论模型与方法,包括电煤价格预测模型、发电集团电煤供应链利益分配模型、综合性的电煤供应链风险管理框架和发电集团电煤供应链协同一体化的信息化方法等。围绕上述目标,本文的主要研究内容包括：1)界定发电集团电煤供应链的概念和主要特性,提出全文的主要研究结构和关键问题。2)结合煤炭在北方下水港的港口库存量、工业增加值、煤炭生产规划、社会用电量、动力煤期货等价格影响因素,以环渤海动力煤价格指数为研究样本,建立了基于相关向量机的电煤价格预测模型。3)通过分析发电集团电煤供应链各参与方的利益诉求,建立了电煤供应链的收益共享模型,并从分散决策和集中决策等角度进行了阐述,给出了收益共享契约下的电煤供应链模型,并结合公司实例进行了分析验证。4)综合考虑发电集团电煤供应链的上下游各参与企业,通过归纳整理及总结分析得到电煤供应链中的风险因素,并据此对电煤供应链的风险情况进行了评估,提出弹性电煤供应链的一体化风险管理框架。5)建立电煤供应链协同一体化的信息系统模型,重点包括从煤炭资源信息、运力信息和电厂信息等角度入手建立基础数据结构,以集中采购为主建立信息系统的协同工作流程,智能化统计决策模块等内容。6)从实际案例入手,建立发电集团电煤供应链的协同管理模型,研究其协同一体化的合作模式。通过对上述内容的深入研究,有助于实现发电集团电煤供应链的协同一体化发展,具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。
[Abstract]:There are many contradictions in the power supply chain of power generation group for a long time, the most prominent of which are the price of coal and the shortage of transportation capacity.These contradictions have brought unfavorable influence to the development of coordination and integration of coal supply chain.Since the second half of 2012, the price of thermal coal has been declining, and the National Development and Reform Commission has also formally implemented the system of coal integration in 2013, and a new opportunity has emerged for the development of coordinated integration of thermal coal supply chain.In addition, the national coal logistics planning and railway tariff adjustment issued at the beginning of 2014 also further illustrate the importance that the country attaches to the coal supply chain, and it is necessary to conduct a thorough study on the related issues of the coordinated integration development of the thermal coal supply chain.The main research goal of this paper is to obtain some effective theoretical models and methods, including the price prediction model of thermal coal, by deeply studying some key problems in the cooperative integration of power coal supply chain in power generation group.The profit distribution model of power coal supply chain, the comprehensive risk management framework of power coal supply chain and the information method of coordination integration of power coal supply chain in power generation group are discussed.The main research contents of this paper include: (1) defining the concept and main characteristics of power coal supply chain of power generation group, and putting forward the main research structure and key questions of this paper.Industrial value added, coal production planning, social electricity consumption, thermal coal futures and other price influencing factors, taking the thermal coal price index around the Bohai Sea as the research sample,Based on correlation vector machine, the model of coal price prediction is established. The profit sharing model of power coal supply chain is established by analyzing the interests of all parties involved in the power supply chain of power generation group.From the angle of decentralized decision and centralized decision, this paper gives the model of power coal supply chain under profit sharing contract, and analyzes and verifies the power coal supply chain with the example of company. 4) considering the upstream and downstream participating enterprises of power coal supply chain in power generation group.Through summing up and analyzing the risk factors in the power coal supply chain, the paper evaluates the risk situation of the power coal supply chain.This paper puts forward the integrated risk management framework of elastic coal supply chain. 5) establishing the information system model of coal supply chain cooperation integration. The emphasis includes the establishment of basic data structure from the aspects of coal resource information, transportation capacity information and power plant information.Based on centralized purchasing, the collaborative work flow of information system and intelligent statistical decision module are established. Based on practical cases, the cooperative management model of power coal supply chain in power generation group is established, and the cooperative mode of cooperation integration is studied.Through the thorough research of the above contents, it is helpful to realize the coordinated integration development of the power coal supply chain of the power generation group, which has important theoretical significance and practical value.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F426.61

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