基于稻谷期货市场角度探究我国稻谷产业的发展

发布时间：2018-05-28 05:17

本文选题：稻谷 + 期货市场　；参考：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：稻谷是世界上最主要的粮食作物之一,种植面积最大,约1.5亿公顷,占世界耕地面积的11%,是全世界30亿人口赖以生存的口粮。长期以来,稻谷是我国第一大粮食作物,播种面积最大、总产最多、单产最高,在粮食生产和消费中,除2012年以外,一直处于主导地位。不过近些年来我国稻谷产业却出现了亟待解决的问题。如国内稻谷库存充裕,供大于求；国际稻谷增产、价格下滑,进口米甚至走私米日渐侵蚀国内市场；缺乏有效的风险控制工具,早籼稻期货表现不如预期等。美国、欧盟等市场经济发达的国家,农产品市场基本是以市场为主导,利用市场自动调节的机制来促进资源的流动和保持市场的效率。而我国统一的农产品市场的发育比较迟缓,随着多年的改革开放以及市场化进程的不断推进,农产品市场不断放开,但至今尚未形成统一、竞争有序的农产品市场,稻谷市场也不例外。虽然2004年开始我国就逐步放开了粮食市场,但我国稻谷的最低收购和公开竞价拍卖、储备等宏观调控政策基本主导了稻谷的价格走势,导致了托市收储遭遇尴尬、价格内外倒挂、“稻强米弱”等现象的出现。期货市场和现货市场之间有着某种固有的联系,是市场体系中的高级形式。美国等发达国家的期货市场经历了从集中性的即期现货交易、远期合约交易,再逐步产生期货交易这样的一个自然而然的过程,可以说是真正意义上的“市场需求”创造了“市场供给”。而我国期货市场的发展,虽然也可以说是商品生产发展到的产物,但准确的说是在商品经济发展程度不高、现货市场发育不充分、市场经济建设还处于不断改善、稳步过度的背景下,借鉴发达国家的经验的基础上才建立期货市场的,是一种跨越式的发展,可以说是一种强制性的制度变迁。本文是在我国整个农产品现货市场发展尚不完善,以及我国期货市场这种跨越式发展的大背景下,从稻谷期货市场两大基本功能发挥程度的角度来探讨我国稻谷现货市场的发展,主要得出以下结论：第一,最低收购价和临时收储等措施基本实现了有效保护了农民利益,促进了粮食生产发展,保障了国家粮食安全,但也出现了一些问题,如粮食最低收购价制、临时收储等措施所形成的“指导价格”产生的托底效应,不利于真正的市场价格的形成,导致了我国稻谷价格走势具有较强独立性,形成严重的价格内外倒挂等现象。第二,我国稻谷总量供需大体平衡,但品种间、区域性的粮食供求结构失衡已成为我国粮食供求矛盾的主要特征,并且最近几年有所强化。第三,稻谷市场的买方相对于以农户为代表的卖方具有更大的垄断力量,同时一些主要重大政策(如最低收购价政策)的执行主体相对单一,主要是以中储粮为代表的国有粮食企业,容易造成一家独大、滋生腐败寻租等现象。第四,市场基础设施建设相对落后,交通设施建设的不完善,互联网相对较低的普及率,不仅造成物流运输效率较低、成本过高,也不利于信息的快速传递。可能具有的主要创新体现在：第一,国内对农产品期货的研究较多,但是自稻谷期货上市以来,其实际功能的发挥程度很少有人进行全面的定量的研究,本文借鉴前人在别的期货品种上的研究方法,第一次全面的定量的分析了稻谷期货市场两大基本功能发挥的程度；第二,以前关于我国稻谷产业的发展基本上集中于投入产出、价格形成机制等角度,而本文结合期货市场与现货市场的理论发展关系,从稻谷期货市场功能发挥的程度分析我国稻谷现货市场,探索和改善我国稻谷产业的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Rice is one of the most important food crops in the world , with the largest planting area , about 150 million hectares , accounting for 11 % of the world ' s arable land . It is the first grain crop in China .
The increase in international rice production , the decline in prices , the import of rice and even the smuggling of rice gradually erode the domestic market ;
Lack of effective risk control tools , early indica rice futures performance is not as expected .

In the developed countries of market economy such as the United States and the European Union , the market of agricultural products is basically the market - oriented , the mechanism of market auto - regulation is used to promote the flow of resources and the efficiency of market .

The futures market of developed countries , such as the United States , has experienced a natural process from the spot - to - spot transaction , forward contract transaction and the progressive generation of futures trading .

This paper discusses the development of China ' s rice market in China from two basic functions : First , lowest purchase price and temporary storage , but also some problems , such as the lowest purchase price and temporary storage , have become the main characteristics of China ' s grain supply and demand contradiction , but also have some problems , such as the lowest purchase price of grain and temporary storage and so on . The third , the market infrastructure construction is relatively backward , the construction of transportation facilities is not perfect , the Internet is relatively low , not only causes the logistics transportation efficiency is lower , the cost is too high , also is not good for the rapid transmission of information .

The main innovations that may have are as follows : First , there are many researches on the futures of agricultural products in China . However , since the listing of rice futures , the actual function has rarely been studied in a comprehensive way . This paper draws on the research methods of the former in other futures varieties , and the first comprehensive quantitative analysis of the extent of the two basic functions of the rice futures market .
Second , the previous development of rice industry in China is mainly focused on input - output , price - forming mechanism and so on , and the paper combines the futures market and the theory development of spot market , analyzes the present market of rice and grain in China from the function of rice futures market , explores and improves the policy suggestion of China ' s rice industry .
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.11;F724.5

【参考文献】