基于假设开发法的房地产企业土地估值模型及应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-14 15:33

本文选题：房地产 + 土地估值　；参考：《东华大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：近二十年来,我国没有一个行业能像房地产一样引发人民广泛的关注和激烈的讨论,这种情况的出现,首先是因为这个行业在国民经济中的重要地位,它占国内GDP的比重不断上升,已成为我国国民经济发展的支柱;其次是这个行业的“事多”,投资过热、库存过高、土地拍卖价格创新高、政策调整等等,诸如此类的话题无一不引起人们的广泛议论,同时也为房地产市场增加了更多不确定因素,房地产投资风险陡增。房地产企业作为房地产市场的主要参与者,它主要依靠房地产开发获利,能否选择合适的估值方法对土地进行估值直接影响到企业是否能拿到土地,以及项目开发的收益。在众多房地产开发项目估值办法中,假设开发法是房地产企业常用的方法。但利用假设开发法做投资分析时很难量化投资的灵活性和项目投资价值,容易导致测算结果的不准确,因此不能科学的给房地产企业提供依据。实物期权能够根据不可预测的因素为决策采取不同策略,房地产企业对房地产开发项目的投资决策具有实物期权的特征,国内外专家学者对于将实物期权应用在房地产开发领域已经取得了一定成果,也根据经典的理论模型建立了一些用于房产开发项目投资决策的实物期权模型。在房地产开发项目投资决策过程中引入实物期权的理论和方法,能最大限度地测量投资过程中的不可预测的因素,增加企业的投资机会,充分考虑投资风险,提高企业在房地产开发项目投资中的成功率。对于国内外专家学者提出的模型,如b-s模型,经常是直接套用经典的公式对房地产开发项目进行定价,对于模型的参数,如预期现金流等,都认为是确定值。但是根据国内房地产市场的不确定性,这样的模型具有很大的局限性,不能完全满足房地产企业决策的需要。基于以上因素,本文在假设开发法模型和期权定价公式的基础上,以国内当前环境下的房地产投资决策作为研究对象,针对房地产项目的不确定性,利用假设开发法建立项目的现金流模型,并采用实物期权的black-scholes模型和二项式模型处理应对项目的不确定性。在本文最后一部分还以金华市湖海塘项目为例,运用假设开发法和实物期权法对其进行了投资决策分析,测算项目的土地价值,并与其实际开发情况相比较。案例分析表明了新的模型在较大不确定性的投资决策中更具有科学性,具有较大的理论和实践价值。
[Abstract]:In the past two decades, no industry in our country has aroused the same widespread concern and intense discussion as real estate. This kind of situation arises first of all because of the important position of this industry in the national economy. Its share in domestic GDP has been rising and has become a pillar of our national economic development. Next, it is the "many things" in this industry, the overheating of investment, the excessive inventory, the high land auction prices, the adjustment of policies, and so on. Such topics have caused widespread debate and added more uncertainty to the real estate market, with real estate investment risk soaring. As the main participants in the real estate market, real estate enterprises mainly rely on the real estate development to make profits. Whether they can choose the appropriate valuation method to evaluate the land will directly affect whether the enterprise can get the land, as well as the income of the project development. In many real estate development project valuation methods, hypothetical development method is commonly used in real estate enterprises. However, it is difficult to quantify the flexibility of investment and the investment value of the project by using the hypothetical development method, which leads to the inaccuracy of the calculation results, so it can not provide scientific basis for the real estate enterprises. Real options can take different strategies according to unpredictable factors, and real estate enterprises' investment decisions on real estate development projects have the characteristics of real options. Experts and scholars at home and abroad have made some achievements in the application of real options in the field of real estate development, and have also established some real options models for investment decisions of real estate development projects according to the classical theoretical model. Introducing the theory and method of real option in the investment decision-making process of real estate development project can measure the unpredictable factors in the investment process to the maximum extent, increase the investment opportunity of the enterprise, and fully consider the investment risk. Improve the success rate of investment in real estate development projects. For the models put forward by experts and scholars at home and abroad, such as b-s model, the classical formula is often applied directly to price the real estate development project, and the parameters of the model, such as expected cash flow, are considered to be definite values. However, according to the uncertainty of the domestic real estate market, this model has great limitations and can not fully meet the needs of the real estate enterprises. Based on the above factors, this paper takes the real estate investment decision under the current domestic environment as the research object, aiming at the uncertainty of the real estate project, based on the hypothetical development method model and the option pricing formula. The cash flow model of the project is established by using the hypothetical development method, and the black-scholes model and binomial model of real options are used to deal with the uncertainty of the project. In the last part of this paper, taking Jinhua Lake seawall project as an example, the investment decision is analyzed by using hypothetical development method and real option method, and the land value of the project is calculated and compared with the actual development situation. The case study shows that the new model is more scientific in investment decision-making with greater uncertainty and has great theoretical and practical value.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.233.4

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