政治风险对中国对外直接投资意愿和规模的影响——基于实物期权和交易成本的视角

发布时间：2018-06-17 12:29

本文选题：对外直接投资 + 投资意愿和规模　；参考：《经济问题探索》2015年07期

【摘要】：许多研究发现政治不稳定的地区更能吸引中国的OFDI,这一发现形成一种悖论,中国的对外直接投资行为与内部化理论不相符。本文结合内部化理论和实物期权理论解释新兴市场国家跨国公司OFDI行为,基于1996-2012年中国对109个国家的对外直接投资数据,从政治不稳定性和建交时长两个角度,分析东道国政治风险对中国对外直接投资意愿和规模的影响。回归结果表明,中国OFDI倾向于进入政治不稳定和建交时间较长的发展中国家市场;在投资规模上,与中国建交时间较长的发展中国家和地区吸引了中国大量的OFDI。研究证明,实物期权理论可以解释中国对外直接投资初期区位选择的影响因素,内部化理论解释中国对外直接投资规模的影响因素。
[Abstract]:Many studies have found that politically unstable regions are more attractive to China's OFDI, which creates a paradox that China's outward FDI behavior is inconsistent with internalization theory. Combined with internalization theory and real option theory, this paper explains the OFDI behavior of MNCs in emerging market countries, based on the data of China's FDI to 109 countries from 1996 to 2012, from the perspectives of political instability and the time of establishment of diplomatic relations. This paper analyzes the influence of political risk of host country on China's foreign direct investment (FDI) willingness and scale. The regression results show that China's OFDI tends to enter the markets of developing countries where political instability and the establishment of diplomatic relations take longer, and in terms of investment scale, the developing countries and regions that have established diplomatic relations with China have attracted a lot of OFDI from China. The research proves that the real option theory can explain the influence factors of the initial location choice of China's FDI, and the internalization theory can explain the influencing factors of the scale of China's FDI.
【作者单位】：中国传媒大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“正确处理经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期的关系研究”(12&ZD038)
【分类号】：D630;F125

【参考文献】