房地产价格波动对通货膨胀的影响分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 00:49

本文关键词：房地产价格波动对通货膨胀的影响分析　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：过去四十多年里,全球经济在低通货膨胀水平的环境下,发生了多次因资产价格波动,尤其是资产价格泡沫的产生和破裂引发的系统性和全球性的金融危机与经济衰退,使银行金融体系面临巨大的信贷违约压力,对实体经济造成巨大伤害甚至崩溃。根据国际惯例,由于资产的投资性质要大于其消费性质,传统的反应通货膨胀的指标中,并没有将资产价格纳入到其影响因素中,这也是近年来我国房价大幅上涨而通胀水平一直处于低位的一个原因。资产价格与宏观经济的关系成为各国货币与政策当局所日益关注的重要问题,也成为学术界的热点问题。基于这样的现实考虑,本文选择房地产价格波动与通货膨胀的互动关系作为研究的课题,是一个对我国政府宏观调控具有重要的理论和现实意义的选题。首先,是理论分析部分,本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,详细阐述房价波动对通货膨胀的影响传导机制,除了得到二者的相关关系外,更是梳理金融经济和实体经济的关系。其次,应用描述性统计方法介绍我国房地产价格和通货膨胀的基本情况,之后用面板数据模型分析不同地区房地产价格波动与通货膨胀的计量关系。结果表明东西部地区确实存在一定程度的差异。最后,在总结全文的理论分析、现实情况以及实证结果的基础上,结合我国现实情况归纳总结了本文的主要结论和政策建议。建议决策者在制定相关决策时,充分考虑自己的地方特色,可以采取“因地制宜”、差别对待的政策,切勿只考虑全国的宏观经济而盲目“跟风”,且建议宏观经济的政策制定者要充分关注房地产价格变动对通货膨胀的影响。
[Abstract]:In the past more than 40 years, the global economy in the low inflation environment, happened repeatedly because of the fluctuation of asset prices, especially the asset price bubbles and the breakdown of the system and the global financial crisis and economic recession, the bank financial system is facing a huge credit default pressure, damage or even collapse of the real economy according to international practice, due to the nature of the assets investment is more than the nature of consumption, the traditional indicators of inflation response, and did not bring asset prices into its influencing factors, this is also in recent years China's housing prices rose sharply and a cause of inflation has been in the low level. The relationship between asset price and macro economy become an important issue of concern with the monetary policy authorities, has become a hot issue in academic circles. Based on such practical considerations, the choice of real estate The interactive relationship between price fluctuation and inflation is the subject of research. It is an important topic of theoretical and practical significance to the macro regulation and control of the government of our country.
First of all, is the part of theoretical analysis, this paper on the basis of research results at home and abroad, expounds the impact of price fluctuations on the inflation transmission mechanism, in addition to the relevant relations of the two, is to sort out the relationship between the financial and real economy. Secondly, the basic situation of application of descriptive statistical methods on China's real estate the price and inflation, using panel data model measurement and analysis of the relationship between real estate price fluctuations and inflation in different regions. The results show that the difference exists in eastern and western regions. At last, a summary of the analysis in theory, based on the reality and the empirical results, combined with the actual situation in China summarized the main conclusions of this the suggestions and policy recommendations. Decision makers in making related decisions, give full consideration to their local characteristics, can take local conditions, differential treatment The policy should not only consider the macro economy of the whole country but blindly follow suit. It is suggested that macroeconomic policymakers should pay enough attention to the impact of real estate price changes on inflation.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.5

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