我国消费者信心指标与股价指数的关联度研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 01:22

本文关键词：我国消费者信心指标与股价指数的关联度研究　出处：《山东财政学院学报》2013年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国股市"非理性投机"、"弱式有效市场"的现状,造成我国如今股市低迷、投资者信心不足等严重的问题。而通过传统的技术分析和基础分析手段,无法对股市震荡、股价的波动进行完美的诠释,因而部分学者开始另辟蹊径,探寻能够更好解释股价变动的"第三条中间路线"。此时,我国消费者信心指标的编制与发布,为研究提供了全新的视角与思路。我国自2003年底开始编制并发布消费者信心指标,旨在从宏观整体经济发展,到微观股市汇市走势研究预测方面,发挥该指标强大的领先与预测功能。文章选取我国三组消费信心指标、上证综指与深证综指两组股价指数,通过相关性检验、因果检验与脉冲响应指数与方差分解等方式,不仅得出我国消费信心指标与股价变动之间较强的关联性,还通过分样本区间的讨论,得出股市衰退、股价下滑阶段,CCI指标与股价指数的关联度更大的结论。
[Abstract]:China's stock market "irrational speculation", "the status quo of the weak effective market", which China is now the stock market downturn, lack of confidence of investors and other serious problems. And through the traditional technical analysis and fundamental analysis means, not on stock market volatility, stock price volatility is the perfect interpretation, so some scholars began to explore the way. To better explain the price change third "middle line". At this time, the preparation of China's consumer confidence index and released with a new perspective and ideas for research. China began to compile and publish the consumer confidence index since the end of 2003, from the macro to the overall economic development, to the micro stock market research trend forecast currencies give full play to the strong leading indicators, and the prediction function. The selection of China's consumer confidence index was three, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index two group stock index, through the correlation test, causality test With impulse response index and variance decomposition, we can not only draw a strong correlation between China's consumer confidence index and stock price fluctuation, but also get a conclusion that the correlation between CCI index and stock price index is bigger through the discussion of sub sample interval.

【作者单位】：山东财经大学金融学院;
【分类号】：F713.55;F832.51;F224
【正文快照】： 一、消费者信心指标相关介绍消费者信心指标(Consumer Confidence Index)又称消费者情绪指数,是在采用问卷调查的基础上,基于消费者对就业、收入、物价、利率等一系列问题的综合判断形成的一种看法和预期,因而该指标是综合反映并量化消费者对当前经济形势评价和对经济前景、

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