货币供给、房地产价格与金融稳定性——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 12:38

本文关键词：货币供给、房地产价格与金融稳定性——基于SVAR模型的实证研究　出处：《上海经济研究》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：该文基于我国2000年1月~2016年12月相关经济数据,通过主成分分析法构建金融稳定性指标,然后通过对货币供给、房地产价格及金融稳定性变量构建SVAR模型,分析了货币供给增加对房地产价格和金融稳定性的影响,以及房地产价格上升对金融稳定性的影响。该文的研究结论是:总的来说,货币供给增加会使房价上升,房价上升又会使金融稳定性下降,以及货币供给增加会使金融稳定性先上升后下降,但总的负效应大于正效应。这就说明,货币供给增加不仅会通过房地产市场间接使金融稳定性下降,还会直接使金融稳定性下降。最后该文认为,我国现阶段应采取稳健的货币政策及严控房价过快上涨政策等,不仅有利于管控房价水平,也有利于金融系统的稳定性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, China's January 2000 ~2016 years of relevant economic data in December based on the construction of financial stability indicators by principal component analysis, then through to the money supply, real estate price and financial stability variables to build SVAR model, analysis of the increase in the money supply impact on real estate prices and financial stability, and real estate prices impact on financial stability. The conclusions are: in general, the increase in the money supply will make prices rise, prices rise will make the financial stability decreases, and the increase in the money supply will make the financial stability first increased and then decreased, but the negative effect is greater than the total effect. This shows that the increase in the money supply will not only through real estate the market indirect financial stability decline, will directly make the financial stability decreased. Finally, the paper argues that China should adopt a prudent monetary policy and strict control of prices The policy of too fast rising is not only conducive to controlling the level of house prices, but also conducive to the stability of the financial system.

【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目:我国发展实体经济的战略、政策和制度研究——基于实体经济和虚拟经济数量关系的视角(批准文号:13&ZD018)资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.2;F832
【正文快照】： 一、引言美国次贷危机发生以来,房地产市场与金融系统稳定性一直受到国内外各界普遍关注。由于房地产市场规模大、涉及范围广,以及金融体系内部各部分互相紧密交融,由房地产市场引发的信贷危机会不断传染、蔓延,致使整个金融体系不稳定,甚至发生金融危机。一旦发生金融危机,经

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