机构投资者持股与业绩预告披露质量的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 05:06

本文关键词：机构投资者持股与业绩预告披露质量的关系研究　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国资本市场的发展及业绩预告制度的发展,管理层业绩预告信息披露得到越来越多投资者的关注,而机构投资者作为资本市场投资者中不可或缺的一部分,对于管理层业绩预告的披露信息也更为关注。相对于其他投资者,机构投资者拥有充足的资金、人脉、专业优势以及信息分析处理能力,通过“用手投票”和“用脚投票”监督和影响上市公司的信息披露质量。研究机构投资者持股情况对业绩预告披露质量的影响可以帮助广大中小投资者“搭顺风车”,使其在做出投资决策时方向更明确,同时也能够促进公司治理的改善,优化资本市场资源配置,促进资本市场的有效运转。本文以管理层业绩预告披露情况为切入点,在研究国内外相关文献及理论基础、制度背景后,采用了我国2008年-2012年上证主板和深证主板A股的3476家发布业绩预告的上市公司作为样本,选取其每年年末数据进行分析,探讨机构投资者持股的各种情况与管理层业绩预告披露质量的相关性。在此基础上,本文从三个维度出发,即业绩预告形式精度、业绩预告误差、业绩预告及时性,针对每个维度分别提出6个假设,共计18个假设。本文选取业绩预告披露的形式精度、误差和及时性作为被解释变量,分别对其进行定义,而机构投资者方面则选取了机构投资者持股与否、机构投资者持股比例、基金持股比例、机构投资者持股的稳定性、前十大股东中机构投资者的数量以及境外合格机构投资者持股比例作为解释变量,同时选取了若干控制变量,包括公司规模、财务风险、现金流量与营业收入相关程度、市账比、盈余波动性、会计师事务所类型,建立了多元线性回归模型对其进行描述性统计分析、相关性分析和回归分析。实证分析结果显示,本文所提出的共计18个假设中有13个得到验证。由研究结果可以看出：就整体而言,机构投资者持股情况对业绩预告披露质量有一定的显著影响。尤其是基金持股比例、前十大股东中机构投资者持股比例与业绩预告的形式精度、误差、及时性均呈现出小于5%的显著相关性,机构投资者持股的稳定性与业绩预告披露及时性、误差呈现出小于5%的显著相关性。在实证分析结果的基础上,本文在最后一章就研究结果和我国资本市场发展的现状提出一些对策建议,同时针对研究的过程中存在的不足之处进行了研究拓展,以期对未来的研究发展有所帮助,从而更好地促进我国资本市场的健康发展。
[Abstract]:With the development of capital market and performance forecasting system in China, more and more investors pay attention to the disclosure of management performance forecast information. As an indispensable part of the capital market investors, institutional investors pay more attention to the disclosure of management performance forecast. Compared with other investors, institutional investors have sufficient funds and contacts. Professional advantage and information analysis and processing ability. By "voting with hands" and "voting with feet" to monitor and influence the quality of information disclosure of listed companies. Take a ride. " At the same time, it can promote the improvement of corporate governance, optimize the allocation of capital market resources, and promote the effective operation of capital market. In this paper, the management performance notice disclosure as a starting point, in the study of domestic and foreign literature and theoretical basis, system background. From 2008 to 2012, 3476 listed companies of Shanghai main Board and Shenzhen main Board were selected as samples to analyze the annual annual data. On the basis of this, this paper starts from three dimensions, that is, the precision of performance forecast form and the error of performance forecast. Performance forecast timeliness, for each dimension of 6 assumptions, a total of 18 hypotheses. This paper selects the formal accuracy of performance notice disclosure, error and timeliness as explained variables, respectively to define it. On the other hand, institutional investors choose whether institutional investors hold shares or not, the proportion of institutional investors holding shares, the proportion of funds holding shares, and the stability of institutional investors' holdings. The number of institutional investors in the top 10 shareholders and the proportion of foreign qualified institutional investors are taken as explanatory variables. At the same time, a number of control variables are selected, including the size of the company, financial risk. The relationship between cash flow and operating income, market / book ratio, earnings volatility and accounting firm type is analyzed by using a multivariate linear regression model for descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis. The empirical results show that 13 of the 18 hypotheses proposed in this paper have been verified. From the results of the study, we can see: on the whole. Institutional investor's stock holding situation has a certain significant influence on the quality of performance forecast disclosure, especially the proportion of fund shareholding, the formal accuracy and error of institutional investor's shareholding proportion and performance forecast among the top ten shareholders. Timeliness shows significant correlation with less than 5%, institutional investor stock holding stability and timeliness of performance announcement, error is less than 5%. Based on the results of empirical analysis. In the last chapter, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the research results and the current situation of the development of the capital market in our country. At the same time, the author develops the research on the deficiencies in the course of the research. In order to help the future research and development, and better promote the healthy development of China's capital market.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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