高管过度自信与公司绩效波动关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 19:10

本文关键词： 高管过度自信公司绩效波动因子分析法股权集中程度　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：公司高管作为公司的经营者和决策者,对公司的经营管理有着重大影响。高层梯队理论认为高管的个人特质会通过影响高管所进行的战略选择和决策,进而影响到公司的绩效和企业价值。因此,高管的心理特质作为个人特质的重要方面也会对公司的发展产生重大影响。高管过度自信作为典型的非理性心理特征之一,近些年一直受到学者的广泛关注,它通过影响公司的日常行为决策而对公司的绩效和价值产生影响。但是以往的研究主要关注公司的绩效水平,而忽略了公司绩效的另一方面:绩效波动性,它主要体现了公司经营发展的稳定性,同时也是衡量高管经营管理水平的重要方面。因此,研究高管过度自信如何影响公司绩效波动这一课题有着重要的意义。本文主要研究高管过度自信对公司绩效波动产生的影响,而绩效波动包含横向绩效波动和纵向绩效波动两个方面。当公司高管存在过度自信,他们往往会倾向于高估公司的收益和回收期、低估公司失败的可能性和面临的风险,从而可能会做出非理性的行为决策,如:增加公司并购频率、短期借款比例和频率以及进行非效率投资等。因此,可能会增加公司经营发展的不确定性和各种风险,从而可能会使得公司的绩效产生较大的波动。本文以我国沪深两市A股上市公司2010-2014年的数据为研究样本,采用因子分析法衡量高管过度自信,在控制一些其他因素的情况下,分别研究高管过度自信对公司横向绩效波动和纵向绩效波动产生的影响。研究结果表明高管过度自信与公司绩效波动之间呈正相关关系,即当高管过度自信时,可能会增加公司绩效的不稳定性和风险,进而对公司的长远发展产生不利的影响。另外本文还继续探讨了在不同产权性质和股权集中程度下,高管过度自信对公司绩效波动产生的影响。实证研究结果表明,与非国有上市公司相比,在国有上市公司中高管过度自信对公司绩效波动产生的影响更为显著;与股权相对集中的上市公司相比,在股权相对分散的上市公司中高管过度自信对公司绩效波动产生的影响更为显著。这一研究结果为我国上市公司的长期稳定发展提供了一定的理论基础和参考借鉴。最后,根据上述研究结论,本文从不同的主体角度提出了以下几点建议:第一,加强高管对过度自信的心理认知,以便尽可能从源头上降低高管过度自信水平以及可能对公司产生的不利影响;第二,完善公司对高管的聘用、考评和激励约束机制;第三,优化公司的决策流程、加强监督管理,保持适当的股权集中程度,以降低高管的行为决策出现极端不利的情形;第四,强化国有上市公司高管的市场意识,并加快其市场化进程,从而实现企业的长期稳定发展。
[Abstract]:As the managers and decision makers of the company, the company executives have a significant impact on the management of the company. The theory of the top echelon holds that the personal characteristics of the executives will influence the strategic choices and decisions made by the senior executives. Therefore, the psychological characteristics of executives, as an important aspect of personal traits, will also have a significant impact on the development of the company. As one of the typical irrational psychological characteristics, the overconfidence of senior executives is one of the typical irrational psychological characteristics. In recent years, scholars have paid more and more attention to it, which influences the performance and value of companies by influencing their daily behavior decisions. However, previous studies have focused on the performance level of companies. While ignoring the other side of corporate performance: performance volatility, it mainly reflects the stability of the company's business development, and it is also an important aspect of measuring the level of executive management. It is of great significance to study how executive overconfidence affects corporate performance volatility. This paper focuses on the impact of executive overconfidence on corporate performance volatility. Performance volatility includes horizontal performance volatility and vertical performance volatility. When executives are overconfident, they tend to overestimate the company's earnings and payback period, underestimate the possibility of failure and risk faced by the company. As a result, irrational behavior decisions may be made, such as increasing the frequency of mergers and acquisitions, short-term borrowing ratio and frequency, and making inefficient investments, etc. Therefore, it may increase the uncertainty and various risks of the company's business development. In this paper, the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2014 are taken as the research samples, and the factor analysis method is used to measure the overconfidence of senior executives, while controlling some other factors. The results show that there is a positive correlation between executive overconfidence and corporate performance volatility. It may increase the instability and risk of corporate performance, and then have a negative impact on the long-term development of the company. In addition, this paper continues to explore the nature of different property rights and the degree of equity concentration. The empirical results show that, compared with the non-state-owned listed companies, the overconfidence of high management overconfidence in state-owned listed companies has more significant impact on corporate performance volatility; Compared with listed companies with relatively concentrated shares, In the listed companies with relatively dispersed equity, the influence of overconfidence on corporate performance is more significant. This study provides a theoretical basis and a reference for the long-term stable development of listed companies in China. According to the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following suggestions from different subjects: first, to strengthen the psychological cognition of overconfidence. In order to reduce the level of executive overconfidence and the possible adverse impact on the company; second, improve the company's hiring, evaluation, incentive and restraint mechanism; third, optimize the decision-making process of the company. Strengthen supervision and management, maintain proper concentration of equity, in order to reduce executive behavior decision-making extremely adverse situation; 4th, strengthen the market awareness of state-owned listed company executives, and speed up its market-oriented process, In order to achieve long-term and stable development of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F275;F272.91

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