资本市场发展、军民融合与中国产业结构优化升级：理论与实证

发布时间：2018-02-12 00:03

本文关键词： 资本市场发展军民融合产业结构优化升级系统GMM模型　出处：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国自十七大报告提出军民融合战略以来,军民融合在推动中国国防经济转型和国防工业市场化、优化军民资源配置、释放创新驱动力和促进产业集聚等方面做出了重要的贡献。但根据《中国军民融合发展报告2014》,目前中国军民融合发展仍处于在过渡阶段,整体投入产出效率不高,且存在技术溢出渠道闭塞和技术势差过大等现象,以致于军民融合对地区产业结构优化升级的影响存在不确定性。同时,随着军民融合的逐渐深化,军工企业以政府补贴为主要资金来源方式的局面将被打破,而“军转民”和“民参军”企业在军民融合过程中为开发新型军民两用品,资金需求量也将显著增加,所以多层次资本市场是军民融合健康发展和释放创新驱动力的基础,是推动产业结构优化升级的重要引擎。鉴于此,我们力图通过理论和实证分析来厘清资本市场发展、军民融合与产业结构之间的动态关系和协调发展机制。首先,我们分别从金融功能和产业外部性视角出发,梳理了资本市场、军民融合与产业结构优化升级的理论机制,并通过构建军民融合生产函数,运用新古典增长模型对资本市场、军民融合和产业结构之间的关系进行了探讨;其次,根据理论分析的结果,利用2007-2014年中国省际面板数据和系统GMM模型,考察了多层次资本市场对军民融合发展的影响,结果表明:银行中长期信贷整体上对军民融合的影响最大,股票市场整体上对军民融合的促进作用不明显,但对“军转民”和“民参军”都存在积极影响,企业债券市场对军民融合存在负向影响且对“民参军”的影响更大,同时发现资本市场对军民融合的发展存在地区异质性和政策时滞效应;再次,我们进一步考察了资本市场、军民融合对产业结构优化升级的影响,发现军民融合有助于产业结构合理化,却不利于产业结构高级化,对第二产业发展存在正向作用,对第三产业的影响不显著,对高技术产业存在挤出效应,另外还发现股票市场和企业债券市场能通过军民融合这一路径来影响第二产业和高技术产业,但银行中长期信贷市场对产业结构优化升级的间接效应不明显。最后,我们基于理论分析和实证分析的结果,从完善多层次资本市场建设、优化军民融合发展模式、扩大军民融合产业辐射力以及加强资本市场与军民融合结合等方面提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the report of the 17th National Congress of China on the strategy of military and civilian integration, military and civilian integration has promoted the transformation of China's defense economy and the marketization of the defense industry, and has optimized the allocation of military and civilian resources. The release of innovative driving forces and the promotion of industrial agglomeration have made important contributions. However, according to the China Civil-Military Integration Development report 2014, the development of civil-military integration in China is still in the transitional stage, and the overall input-output efficiency is not high. And there are some phenomena such as blocked technology spillover channels and too big technical potential difference, so that the influence of military and civilian integration on the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure is uncertain. At the same time, with the gradual deepening of military and civil integration, The situation of military enterprises using government subsidies as the main source of funds will be broken down, and the demand for funds for the development of new types of military-civilian dual-use goods in the process of integration between the military and the civilian population will also increase significantly. Therefore, the multi-level capital market is the basis for the healthy development of military-civilian integration and the release of innovative driving forces, as well as an important engine for promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. In view of this, we strive to clarify the development of the capital market through theoretical and empirical analysis. First of all, from the perspective of financial function and industrial externality, we combed the theoretical mechanism of capital market, military and civil integration and industrial structure optimization and upgrading. The relationship among capital market, military and civil integration and industrial structure is discussed by constructing the production function of civil-military integration. Secondly, according to the results of theoretical analysis, the paper discusses the relationship between capital market, civil-military integration and industrial structure by using neoclassical growth model. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2014 and the systematic GMM model, this paper investigates the influence of multi-level capital market on the development of civil-military integration. The results show that the bank's medium and long term credit has the greatest impact on the military-civilian integration. The effect of the stock market on the integration of military and civilian is not obvious, but it has a positive effect on the conversion of military to civilian and the joining of people in the army. The corporate bond market has a negative influence on the integration of military and civilian, and has a greater impact on the integration of civil and military. At the same time, we find that the capital market has regional heterogeneity and policy delay effect on the development of military-civilian integration. Thirdly, we further investigate the influence of capital market and civil-military integration on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. It is found that military-civilian integration is helpful to the rationalization of industrial structure, but is not conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure, has a positive effect on the development of the secondary industry, has no significant impact on the tertiary industry, and has an crowding out effect on the high-tech industry. In addition, it is also found that the stock market and the corporate bond market can influence the secondary industry and the high-tech industry through the path of military-civilian integration, but the indirect effect of the medium- and long-term credit market of banks on the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure is not obvious. Finally, Based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, we improve the multi-level capital market construction and optimize the development model of military-civilian integration. Some policy suggestions on expanding the radiation power of military and civil fusion industry and strengthening the combination of capital market and military-civilian integration are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.5;F121.3

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